“双碳”目标下中国天然气发展定位及潜在路径研究

Study on the positioning and pot ential path of natural gas development in China under the dual-carbon target

在分析当前天然气发展面临的外部环境的基础上,对天然气进行定位;并基于多视角下的天然气消费总量对比分析和改进的系统动力学模型,得到了天然气潜在消费总量和结构路径。研究结果表明:①天然气在能源发展进程中,扮演着保障近中期能源安全的压舱石、能源转型阶段性桥梁、新能源规模发展伴侣和多元化能源系统中的日常能源等角色。②从天然气消费总量路径来看,2020一2030年,天然气消费将稳步上升;2030年之后,天然气发展降速,并在2035一2040年间达到峰值,峰值约为6000亿m^(3);2040年之后,随着可再生能源在能源系统中的主体地位不断上升,天然气将逐渐退出。③从天然气消费结构路径来看,未来工业和居民用气依然是天然气消费的重要组成部分,化工用气占比不高但比例相对稳定,发电用气占比在2045年之前将持续增长,交通和其他部门用气占比逐渐降低。预计工业部门、居民生活和化工部门天然气消费将在2035年左右达到峰值,峰值分别约为2200亿、1200亿和550亿m^(3);2040年左右,发电部门天然气消费将达到峰值,峰值约为2000亿m^(3);2025—2030年间,交通及其他部门天然气消费将达到峰值,峰值约为500亿m^(3)。

This paper analyzes the external environment facing natural gas development and its positioning, and obtains the total potential consumption and structural path of natural gas based on a comparative analysis of total natural gas consumption in multiple perspectives and an improved system dynamics model. The results of the study show that:①Natural gas plays the role of a ballast to ensure energy security in the near to medium term, a bridge to the energy transition phase, a companion to the development of new energy sources at scale and a daily energy source in a diversified energy system.②In terms of the total natural gas consumption path, natural gas consumption will steadily increase from 2020 to 2030, and after 2030, natural gas development will slow down and reach a peak of about 600 billion m^(3)between 2035 and 2040, and after 2040, natural gas will be withdrawn as the dominance of renewable energy in the energy system continues to rise.③In terms of the structural path of natural gas consumption, industrial and residential gas will remain an important part of natural gas consumption in the future, chemical gas will not account for a high but relatively stable proportion, power generation will continue to grow until 2045, and transportation and other industries will gradually reduce their share of gas consumption. It is expected that gas consumption in the industrial, residential and chemical sectors will peak around 2035, with peaks of about 220 billion m^(3), 120 billion m^(3) and 55 billion m^(3), respectively;around 2040, gas consumption in the power generation sector will peak at about 200 billion m^(3);gas consumption in the transportation and other sectors will peak at 50 billion m^(3) between 2025 and 2030.