应用生命旋回理论预测四川盆地常规天然气探明储量增长趋势

Application of life cycle theory to the prediction of growth trend of proved conventional natural gas reserves in Sichuan Basin, China

根据四川盆地常规天然气探明储量增长规律,以天然气资源量和成熟盆地最终探明率作为约束条件,提出应用生命旋回相关模型来预测四川盆地常规天然气探明储量增长趋势。使用改进的哈伯特模型、龚帕兹模型和胡-陈-张模型,对常规天然气探明储量峰值出现的年份进行预测。考虑历年新增探明储量变化特征,采用多峰哈伯特模型分段拟合预测年均新增探明储量,体现四川盆地常规天然气探明储量增长趋势为短期优势多峰和长期增加趋势相结合的地质规律。研究结果表明,(1)截至2021年,四川盆地常规天然气探明率为23.6%,未来30年仍将呈快速增长趋势;(2)预测四川盆地全生命周期的常规天然气探明储量峰值将出现在2034年前后,峰值储量将到达599.95×10~9 m~3;(3)预测“十四五”期间常规天然气新增探明储量124.91×1010m~3左右,年均新增储量249.8×10~9 m~3左右。通过探明储量增长趋势预测,初步证明四川盆地常规天然气勘探潜力巨大,该认识有助于合理制定四川盆地天然气中长期战略发展规划。

According to the growth law of proved reserves of conventional natural gas in Sichuan Basin and taking natural gas resources and the final proved rate of mature basins as constraints, the life cycle correlation model is proposed to predict the growth trend of proved reserves of conventional natural gas in Sichuan Basin. The modified Hubert model, Gompertz model and Hu-Chen-Zhang model are used to predict the peak years of proved conventional natural gas reserves. Based on the change characteristics of new proved reserves over the years, the multi-peak Hubert model is used to predict the annual new proved reserves, so as to show the growth trend of conventional natural gas proved reserves in Sichuan Basin, which is a combination of short-term advantages and multi-peak and long-term increasing trend. The results show that:(1) By 2021, the proved rate of conventional natural gas in Sichuan Basin is 23.6%, and it will still show a rapid growth trend in the next 30 years;(2) It is predicted that the peak proved reserves of conventional natural gas in the whole life cycle of Sichuan Basin will appear around 2034, and the peak reserves will reach to 599.95×10~9 m~3.(3) It is predicted that during the 14 th Five-Year-Plan period, the new proved reserves of conventional natural gas will be about 124.91×1010m~3, and the annual new reserves will be about 249.8×10~9 m~3. Through the prediction of the growth trend of proved reserves, it is preliminarily proved that the conventional natural gas exploration potential in Sichuan Basin is huge, which is helpful to rationally formulate the mid-and long-term strategic development plan of natural gas in Sichuan Basin.