隐性壁垒、城市融入与农业户籍流动人口落户

Implicit Barriers,Urban Integration and Willingness of Agricultural Registered Migrants to Settle Down

促进农业转移人口有序城镇化是提高劳动力配置效率,促进城乡协调发展的关键。本文利用2012—2017年全国流动人口动态监测的农业户籍流动人口观测样本数据,借鉴城市融合和劳动力迁移相关理论,分析落户政策逐步放宽的背景下,中国农业户籍劳动力的城市融入状况与落户意愿,以及两者之间的关联。数据显示,中国农业户籍流动人口落户城市意愿仅为1/3左右,且近几年呈现逐步下降的趋势。实证回归表明,良好的城市融入,尤其是心理融入有助于提高其落户意愿;城市融入可以解释农业户籍流动人口落户意愿变异的15%左右,而相对贡献则高达50%左右。本文进一步分析代表性城市的落户以及社保、购房、子女教育等政策发现,虽然各地户籍限制逐步放宽,但依然存在各种隐性壁垒,这些壁垒可能是造成农业户籍流动人口在经济、健康保障、社会以及心理等方面的城市融入程度较低的关键原因。未来的城镇化不仅需要进一步改革户籍制度等显性制度性壁垒,还需要政府、企业、社会等各级组织设法减少经济、健康、社会以及心理等方面的隐性壁垒,增强流动人口的城市融入程度,提高流动人口异地落户意愿,避免劳动力在城乡间的候鸟式迁移,同时防止农民市民化的反向转变。

Promoting the orderly urbanization of agricultural migrants is the key to improve allocative efficiency of labor and coordinated rural-urban development.This paper studies the national migrant population from 2012 to 2017,draws on the relevant theories of urban integration and labor migration, and analyzes the city integration status and settlement willingness of China’s agricultural registered labor force, as well as the relationship between the two under the background of the gradual relaxation of settlement policies.Data shows that only 1/3 agricultural migrants are willing to change their household registration status and settle down in urban areas, and the migration intention is declining over time.Empirical regression shows that good city integration, especially psychological integration, positively affects the willingness to settle down for all migrants.About 15% of the variation in intention to settle down can be explained by city integration, and the relative contribution reaches 50%.Further analysis of the settlement in representative cities, social security, housing purchase, children’s education and other policies indicates that although the restrictions on registered residence are gradually relaxed, there are still various implicit barriers, which may be the key reason for the low integration of agricultural registered residence migrants into cities in terms of economy, health security, society and psychology.Future urbanization requires not only further reform of explicit institutional barriers such as the registered residence system, but also efforts by governments, enterprises, social organizations and other organizations at all levels to reduce implicit barriers in economic, health, social and psychological aspects, enhance the urban integration of rural migrants, improve the intention of migrants to settle in different places, avoid migration of labor force between cities, and prevent the reverse transformation of farmers’ citizenization.