中美国际制度竞争的双重逻辑与中国抉择

The Dual Logic of China-U.S. International Institutional Competition

中美国际制度竞争是双方战略竞争的重要组成部分,国际制度竞争的进程与结果不仅影响着国际规则的生成,还形塑未来的国际秩序。中美国际制度竞争不是中美争霸,审视中美在国际制度领域的竞争,实际上存在着两种行为逻辑,即“权力—利益”逻辑和“责任—权利”逻辑。前者隐含了冲突对抗的风险因子,后者则为合作共赢奠定了基础。中美双方秉持不同逻辑开展的国际制度竞争可能催生出四种不同情境。其中,“丛林情境”下国家间冲突的风险性最高;“乐园情境”风险性最低,“顽固情境”和“鲁莽情境”的风险性居中。反观现实,当前中美处于国际制度竞争的“顽固情境”中。中国应避免该情境滑向“丛林情境”,并尝试推动其向“乐园情境”转移,具体可以从权责分配、价值倾向以及制度合法性等三个方面进行分析。

The China-U.S. international institutional competition is essential to the strategic competition between the two sides. The process and outcome of the international institutional competition not only affect the international rules but also shape the international order in the future. The China-U.S. international institutional competition is not about hegemonic rivalry between the two countries. The dual logic exists in China-U.S. international institutional competition, and there are two logic of “power-interest” and the logic of “responsibility-right”. The former involves risk of confrontation and conflict, while the latter lays the foundation for win-win cooperation. The China-U.S. international institutional competition with different logic may lead to four different situations. The risk of inter-state conflict in “forest situation” is the highest, while the “paradise situation” has the lowest risk, and the “paranoid situation” and “reckless situation” are in the middle. In reality, China and the United States are currently in a “paranoid situation”. Against this background,China should prevent the situation from sliding into the “forest situation” and try to promote it to the “paradise situation”, which can be arrived at from the distribution of responsibility and right, value tendency, and institutional legitimacy.