基于广义极值分布的巴颜喀拉块体中部地震危险性分析

Earthquake risk analysis in the middle of Bayan Har block based on generalized extreme value distribution

本文对广义极值分布模型的构建机理进行了深入详细的阐述,给出了逻辑意义更加合理的的重现期和重现水平定义,以及相关的地震危险性评价指标。在此基础上,应用构建模型对巴颜喀拉块体中部的地震危险性做了客观的评价,得出巴颜喀拉块体中部每年的平均最大发震为M_(s)5.1,每20年发生M_(s)6.0以上强震可能性超过97%,M_(s)7.5左右的超强震约100年一遇,块体内部孕育地震的能量积累迅速。

The construction principle of generalized extreme value distribution(GEV)model is described in detail in this paper.The more reasonable definition of recurrence interval and recurrence level,as well as related index of seismic risk are given.Earthquake risk in the middle of Bayan Har block is objectively evaluated by using the GEV model.It is concluded that the annual average maximum magnitude in the middle of Bayan Har block is 5.1.The possibility of earthquakes with a magnitude 6 is more than 97% every 20 years.The super strong earthquakes with a magnitude about 7.5 occur once every 100 years and the energy for earthquake preparation in the block accumulates rapidly.