化解“三重压力”,促进经济发展质量与增长速度共同提升

Relieve the"Triple Pressures"and Promote High-Quality Economic Growth at a Faster Speed

党的十八大以来,我国经济发展质量持续提高,2022年经济增长速度偏低。“三重压力”持续演化,需求收缩是短期内我国宏观经济面临的主要矛盾,与国际主要经济体比较,我国经济增长-通胀指标组合相对偏冷,经济增长低于潜在经济增长率,失业率有所提高。供给冲击对物价上涨的影响减弱,全球产业链供应链持续调整。消费信心指数和采购经理指数(PMI)仍处于弱势,人民币兑美元汇率贬值预期改善。2023年我国将持续优化疫情防控措施,改善融资环境,继续实施积极的财政政策,美联储加息路径可能趋向缓和,这些冲减“三重压力”的因素将缓解需求收缩压力,推动经济转向强势增长。长期的经济低增长会损害经济发展质量。2023年是党的二十大后加快中国式现代化建设的元年,应坚持把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来,推动经济实现质量与速度协调并进的增长,为中国式现代化建设开好局。

The Report to the 2o"National Congress of the Communist Party of China states that"we will make sure that our implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand is integrated with our efforts to deepen supply-side structural reform...so as to effectively upgrade and appropriately expand China's economic output."This is a major strategic measure put forward by the Central Committee of the CPC according to the changing development environment at home and abroad and the mission and tasks of the CPC in the new era and for the new journey.In the coming years,it is urgent to elevate both"quality"and"quantity"to effectively leverage the economic advantages of a large country,accelerate the construction of a new development pattern,and build a modern socialist country in all respects.According to historical data,since 1993,the quality of China's economic development has been gradually improved,but the change in China's economic growth rate and the change in its quality are not convergent.From 2013 to 2018,when economic growth was in the medium-to-high speed stage,the quality of economic development improved the fastest.The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2021 pointed out that China's economic development faced the triple pressures of shrinking demand,disrupted supply and weakening expectations.The 2022 Government Work Report also lists the triple pressures as the main problem and challenge to be dealt with immediately.Between January and February 2022,China's economy exhibited recovering momentum,whereas with the repeated domestic outbreak of COVID-19,the Russia-Ukraine conflict,and the US technology embargo on China,from March onward,economic growth in the second quarter fell sharply.In response,the CPC Central Committee and the State Council immediately launched 33 measures to stimulate the economy at the end of May,and the economic growth picked up in the third quarter,but the"triple pressures""continued to evolve in the fourth quarter,and showed some new characteristics.Against this background,exploring effective ways and paths to resolve triple pressures and achieving high-quality faster economic growth is an important task at present and for a period to come.In 2022,facing the complex and severe domestic and international situation and the impact of multiple factors beyond expectation,under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Commitee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core,the central and local governments adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability,and efficiently coordinated epidemic response and economic development in accordance with the requirements for effective epidemic control,stable economic growth,and secure development.With a package of successive policies and measures to stabilize the economy,in addition to deepening the supply-side reform,the quality of economic development continues to improve.But the economic growth rate in 2022 is lower than expected.From the perspective of the continuous evolution of the"triple pressures""in 2022,demand contraction is the main feature of China's economy in the short term.Compared with other major economies in the world,China has a relatively low economic growthinflation index combination.Meanwhile,economic growth is lower than the potential economic growth rate,and the unemployment rate has increased.Consumer demand is sluggish and real estate investment is shrinking.The impact of commodity supply shocks on inflation has weakened.Although pork prices have rebounded in the cyclical pattern,which drives up consumer prices,China's production price index is facing downward pressure toward negative reading on edge.The continuous adjustment of the global industrial chain and supply chain affects the long-term competitiveness of China's economy.Some leading indicators are showing signs of improvement.Although the consumer confidence index and purchasing managers'index(PMI)remain weak,the expectation of depreciation of the renminbi against the dollar has been attenuating since January.Looking forward to 2023,China will continue to optimize epidemic control measures to boost market confidence with more efficient,science-based,reasonable and self-discipline behavior.If China smoothly passes the peak of new infection cases and achieves herd immunity,production and life will gradually return to normal,the in-person service industry will usher in a new round of explosive development,and the pressure of short-term demand contraction will be greatly eased.US inflation is showing signs of peaking,and the Fed's interest rate hike path may tend to ease.Although the layoffs announced by many high-tech companies in the United States have cooled the labor market,in general,the US is facing labor shortage,and wage increases have become a potential driving force for inflation in the country.The opportunity for economic mismatch reversal between China and the United States has increased,and the expectation of RMB depreciation is replaced by one of appreciation.After the success of the 2o"h National Congress of the CPC,China will begin a new journey toward Chinese economic modernization in 2023,implement the strategy to expand domestic demand and deepen the supply-side structural reform.The momentum of economic growth may launch a new recovery,China's economy is expected to achieve effective upgrade and appropriate expansion.Once the expectation of the US economy entering recession deepens,the Fed's monetary policy may stop raising interest rates and turn to easing again,the interest-rate gap between China and the US will widen,and the expectation of RMB appreciation against the US dollar will be self-realizing.Long-term low economic growth is inconsistent with China's growth potential and large market hypothesis,and long-term growth lower than the potential economic growth rate will bring a series of problems,such as cyclical unemployment whose long-term existence will be transformed into structural unemployment,and will eventually damage the economic growth potential and reduce the potential economic growth rate.Long-term low growth is harmful to the quality of economic development.A prolonged period of low growth can also lead to risk accumulation and outbreaks,deteriorating economic security.The year 2023 is the first year to accelerate Chinese modernization after the 2o"h National Congress of the CPC.In the face of the recession of some developed economies,in order to reverse the momentum of weakening domestic demand,it is urgent to adopt expansionary policies to resolve the existing"triple pressures"to effectively expand domestic demand,boost expectations,and appropriately promote economic growth.The main policy recommendations are as follows:further strengthen proactive fiscal policies and expansive monetary policies;implement more scientific and accurate epidemic control measures,and strive to eliminate the gap between epidemic response at home and abroad as soon as possible;prevent unexpected inflation to control the rise in pork prices;implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and stabilize market expectations;deepen the supply-side reform and enhance the resilience of industrial chains and supply chains;prevent and resolve systemic risk and enhance the sustainability of economic development;implement employment policies to alleviate cyclical unemployment.