水效率相关因素的偏最小二乘回归分析

Partial Least Squares Regression Analysis of Correlation Factors of Water Use Efficiency

为分析用水效率的影响因素及其相关性,纳入所有自变量且克服多重共线性,采用偏最小二乘法建模,研究中国2019年的用水效率相关因素。结果显示,该方法有效描述了变量的相关关系。与万元GDP用水量相关性较高的因素为自然条件、社会发展水平、一产增加值的GDP占比和水行业劳动力比重。整体经济用水效率东高西低。与耕地实际亩均用水量相关性较高的因素为自然条件和一、二产业增加值的GDP占比。农业用水效率为中高西低。与万元工业增加值用水量相关性较高的因素为自然条件、污水处理率、城镇化率和水行业资本比重。工业用水效率东高中低。与人均公共用水量相关性较高的因素为人均水资源量、年降水量、污水处理率、人均GDP和一、二产业增加值的GDP占比。地区因素与公共用水效率的相关性小。研究成果可为水资源优化管理与合理利用提供参考。

In order to analyze the influencing factors and their correlations of water use efficiency, incorporate all independent variables and overcome multicollinearity, the partial least squares method was used to study the correlation factors of water use efficiency in 2019 in China. The results show that the partial least square method can describe the correlation between variables effectively. Factors that are highly correlated with water consumption per ten thousand Yuan of GDP are natural conditions, social development level, GDP proportion of added value of primary industry, and the proportion of labor force in the water industry. The overall economic water use efficiency is high in the eastern region and low in the western region. Factors that are highly correlated with actual irrigation water consumption per mu of cultivated land are natural conditions and GDP proportion of added value of primary and secondary industries. Agricultural water use efficiency is high in the central region and low in the western region. Factors highly correlated with the water consumption per ten thousand Yuan of industrial added value are natural conditions, sewage treatment rate, urbanization rate and the capital proportion of water industry. Industrial water efficiency is high in the eastern region and low in the central region. Factors highly correlated with per capita public water consumption are per capita water resources, annual precipitation, sewage treatment rate, per capita GDP and GDP proportion of added value of primary and secondary industries. There is little correlation between regional factors and public water use efficiency. The research results can provide reference for the optimal management and rational utilization of water resources.