农村劳动力转移对粮食生产的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Rural Labor Transfer on Grain Production

中国人的饭碗端在中国人自己手里是“未来谁来养活中国人”的唯一答案。随着农村劳动力转移规模的持续扩大,农村劳动力转移对粮食生产是否产生冲击已成为一个重要议题。本文以柯布—道格拉斯生产函数为基础,选取粮食主产省份四川省作为研究对象,利用四川省2009—2018年21个市的面板数据,通过固定效应模型进行实证分析,探析农村劳动力转移对粮食生产的影响。结果表明,四川省农村劳动力转移对粮食生产具有显著正向作用,与此同时,非农产业比重、农业机械化水平、耕地面积对粮食生产也具有显著影响。由此建议,引导剩余劳动力有序转移,发挥非农产业的外溢效应,重视农业机械化水平提升,严格保护耕地资源,以实现粮食供应稳定增长。

The Chinese people′s rice bowls are in the hands of the Chinese themselves,which is the only answer to“who will feed the Chinese in the future”.Based on the Cobb-Douglas production function,this paper selects Sichuan Province,the main grain-producing province,as the research object,uses the panel data of 21 cities in Sichuan Province from 2009 to 2018 to conduct empirical analysis through a fixed effect model,and analyzes the effect of rural labor transfer on grain production.The research results show that rural labor transfer in Sichuan Province has a significant positive effect on grain production,while the proportion of non-agricultural industries,the level of agricultural mechanization,and the area of arable land have a significant impact on grain production.Therefore,it is suggested to guide the orderly transfer of surplus labor,give full play to the spillover effect of non-agricultural industries,pay attention to the improvement of the level of agricultural mechanization,and more strictly protect cultivated land resources to achieve stable growth of food supply.