中国家庭偿债能力:衡量与影响因素

The Solvency of Chinese Households:Measurement and Determinants

居民部门债务的快速增长和过度累积可能导致经济体系产生潜在的金融风险。本文以2011-2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据为研究样本,选取了综合衡量家庭偿债能力的指标,并根据宏观层面的不良贷款率对该指标进行校准。进一步地,本文基于衡量结果分析了我国家庭偿债能力的影响因素。研究发现:第一,2011-2017年期间我国金融脆弱性家庭占比呈逐年上升趋势,且现阶段我国金融脆弱性家庭变动状况存在明显的人群异质性和地区异质性。应警惕居民部门杠杆率过快上升的透支效应和潜在风险,关注低收入家庭的偿债风险。第二,购房预期收益上升使家庭产生加杠杆行为,导致家庭过度负债从而使家庭偿债能力进一步恶化。本研究对我国居民部门的金融风险监测、评估和预警有一定启示。

The global financial crisis highlighted excessive indebtedness of the household sector as an important source of systemic risk and demonstrated that the health of balance sheets in the household sector plays a key role in the economy.A healthy balance sheet in the household sector provides a solid foundation for rapid economic recovery in the post-pandemic era,whereas a rapid and excessive accumulation of household sector debt may lead to financial risks in the economy.Preventing and controlling financial risks is a core objective of China's economic and financial system.In recent years,against the background of a loose monetary policy and a rapid rise in real estate prices,Chinese residents have begun to buy houses with a large amount of debt,leading to a rapid increase in the leverage ratio(Debt/GDP)of the Chinese household sector.According to the Bank for International Settlements,from 2011 to 2021,the leverage ratio of China's household sector rose by 33.8 percentage points,ranking first in the world.The rising leverage ratio in China is quite similar to the conditions before the outbreak of economic crises in America and Japan,and therefore warrants vigilance.The underlying danger of systemic risk caused by an increasing leverage ratio and insufficient repayment ability has attracted increasing attention.Many studies have assessed the solvency and liquidity risks of banks and other financial institutions,but there remains a lack of measurement of financial fragility caused by the growing debt risk of the household sector.The financial risk and solvency of this sector needs to be addressed.Using China Household Finance Survey data from 2011 to 2017,this study studies the solvency of Chinese households.Drawing on the most common measures of household debt burden,this study selects an indicator to comprehensively measure the financial fragility of households,which is used as an early warning signal to measure the default risk of indebted households,and adds liquid assets to consider household solvency.First,we measure household solvency using the financial margin(FM),then identify financially vulnerable households according to whether the household's liquid assets can cover the negative financial margin in a given period,and calibrate this according to the non-performing loan rate at the macro-level.Then,through the exogenous variable of expected housing returns,we further analyze the influencing factors and channels of solvency of the Chinese household sector.This study yields several key findings.First,the proportion of financially vulnerable households in China increased from 2011 to 2017,with obvious population and regional heterogeneities observed in the changes of financially vulnerable households.The risk posed by the household sector to the stability of the financial system are generally contained in China.We should continue to pay attention to the debt repayment risks of young households,rural households and households in the Eastern region.Household financial risks are significantly related to household characteristics.Attention should be paid to the debt repayment risks of low-income households and to strengthen social security.Second,a rise in expected returns leads to excessive debt behavior in households,which may be an important factor for the deterioration of the household financial fragility,and the financial fragility of households continues to increase mainly through the channels of real estate purchase and risk preference.With increasing economic uncetrtainty,we should focus on guiding real estate market expectations,improving financial literacy nationwide and helping households make reasonable investment and consumption decisions.The study makes three main contributions.First,using household data to directly and effectively measure the solvency of China's household sector,and accuracy is improved further by the calibration of the non-performing loan ratio at the macro-level.Second,the study comprehensively addresses the financial risk of the household sector and identifies the dynamic changes and structural distribution of China's household financial fragility using panel data from 2011 to 2017.Accordingly,this study resolves the identification errors by using cross-sectional data,which is crucial for the monitoring,assessment and early warning of financial risk in the household sector.Third,this study explores the factors that cause households to fall into financial distress through the channel of expected housing returns,thus providing a new perspective on the forces driving household financial fragility.This perspective can help to evaluate the debt risk in China's household sector in the post-pandemic era and provides support for the implementation of macro policies.