农业碳排放驱动因素——区域间贸易碳排放转移网络视角

Driving factors of agricultural carbon emission:From the perspective of interregional trade carbon emission transfer network

利用2007~2017年我国30个省份面板数据,以各省份为节点,省份间的碳排放关系为边缘,碳排放转移量为权重构建区域间农业贸易碳排放转移网络,将投入产出理论与复杂网络理论结合探究各省在农业贸易碳排放转移网络中角色对各省份农业直接碳排放的影响.实证结果表明:2007~2017年期间我国农业直接碳排放量整体较大,且大部分省份农业直接碳排放处于上升趋势.根据三大功能区农业贸易碳排放流入和流出分析结果来看,粮食主产区更多的是区域内部自产自消,其次是供给粮食主销区,最后是供给粮食产销平衡区.而粮食主销区更多的是消耗粮食主产区,供给相对较少.粮食产销平衡区更多的是消耗粮食主产区,供给粮食主销区和主产区.我国碳排放流向主要集中在粮食主产区等中部地区以及东北三省,西部地区的新疆、内蒙古等省份主要是由东部等发达地区流入.农业贸易碳排放流入强度、城镇化水平、农业机械投入强度以及平均每一农业劳动力生产粮食产量对农业直接碳排放有促进作用;农村居民人均纯收入、农业产业结构对农业直接碳排放有抑制作用;农业贸易碳排放流出强度、传输介质能力以及影响力对农业直接碳排放没有显著性影响.

Using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2017,the inter-regional agricultural trade carbon emission transfer network was constructed with each province as the node,the carbon emission relationship between provinces as the edge and the carbon emission transfer amount as the weight,and the input-output theory and complex network theory were combined to investigate the influence of each province’s role in the agricultural trade carbon emission transfer network on each province’s agricultural direct carbon emission.The empirical results show that China’s agricultural direct carbon emissions were large in general from 2007 to 2017,and most provinces’agricultural direct carbon emissions were in an increasing trend.According to the results of the inflow and outflow analysis of agricultural trade carbon emissions in the three functional areas,the main grain producing areas were more self-consuming,followed by the main grain marketing areas,and finally the balanced grain production and marketing areas.The main marketing areas consumed more of the main grain producing areas and supply less.The balanced grain production and marketing area consumed more of the main grain producing area and supplies the main grain selling area and the main producing area.The flow of carbon emissions in China was mainly concentrated in the central regions such as the main grain producing regions and the three northeastern provinces.The western provinces of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia were mainly inflow from developed regions such as the east.The inflow intensity of agricultural trade carbon emissions,urbanization level,agricultural machinery input intensity and average grain production per agricultural labor force have a catalytic effect on agricultural direct carbon emissions;the per capita net income of rural residents and agricultural industry structure have a suppressive effect on agricultural direct carbon emissions;the outflow intensity,transmission medium capacity and influence of agricultural trade carbon emissions have no significant effect on agricultural direct carbon emissions.