百年变局下全球产业链重构与两岸产业链整合

Global Industrial Chain Restructuring and the Cross-Strait Industrial Chain Integration Against the Backgrownd of Major Changes Unseen in a Century

近年来百年变局与世纪疫情交织,全球化遭遇逆流,以美国为主导的发达经济体出于贸易保护主义目的发动中美经贸摩擦,叠加新冠肺炎疫情持续蔓延、俄乌冲突等"黑天鹅"或"灰犀牛"事件,严重冲击全球产业价值链。后疫情时代全球产业价值链重构趋向主要表现为:各国或地区试图引导产业链的收缩和区位转移;各经济体倾向于分散产业链风险,避免因供应链聚集化出现"断链""断供"等困境;俄乌冲突加剧价值链向地缘政治收缩;美国继续强化对中国内地产业链的封锁,促使全球产业链"去中国化"。两岸产业链整合属于全球产业链中重要的生产环节,全球产业链重构将深刻影响两岸产业链整合和经贸关系。两岸产业合作是基于双方优势互补的发展条件形成的资源最优配置,完全符合全球产业链的内在机制。台湾地区只有与内地建立更加紧密的经济联系,通过内地这条通路才能更加有效地参与全球产业分工,避免"经济边缘化""产业空洞化"的危机。

In recent years,a century of changes and the great pandemic have been intertwined,globalization has encountered backlash.Developed economies led by the United States have launched Sino-US Economic and Trade Friction for the purpose of trade protectionism,and black swan"or"gray rhino"incidents such as the continuing spread of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,continued to occur.All these have severely impacted global industrial value chain,In the post-epidemic period,the restructuring trend of global industrial value chain is as follows:Each country or region intends to lead the shrinkage and the location transfer of industrial chain;Economies also tend to diversify the risks of industrial chain,avoiding the dilemma of chain and supply interruption caused by the agglomeration of supply chain;The Russia-Ukraine conflict will exacerbate the shrinkage of the value chain to geopolitics;The United States will continue to strengthen the blockade of industrial chain of the Chinese mainland,promoting the"De-Sinicization"of the global industrial chain.The cross-Strait industrial chain integration is an important production link of global industrial chain,and the restructuring of global industrial chain will also affect the cross-Strait industrial chain integration and economic and trade ties.The cross-Strait industrial cooperation is the optimal allocation of resources based on the development conditions of complementary advantages of both sides,which fully conforms to the internal mechanism of global industrial chain.Only by establishing closer economic ties with the mainland can Taiwan effectively participate in global industrial division of labor through the mainland and avoid the crisis of"economic marginalization"and"industrial hollowing-out".