中国节能政策注意力变迁研究——基于中央政策文本的量化分析

Attention evolution of China’s energy-saving policies:Based on a quantitative analysis of central government policy texts

【目的】本文旨在探讨改革开放以来中国节能政策注意力变迁过程,揭示节能政策的内在规律与特征,为今后节能政策的制定和优化提供政策建议,以提升政府节能减排整体工作水平。【方法】以1978—2021年中央政府发布的节能政策文本为研究对象,从注意力强度、注意力广度和发文主体合作度3个维度构建分析框架,通过文本计量刻画中国节能政策注意力变迁的阶段特征,采用PMC指数模型对4项抽样政策文本进行评价,并剖析其注意力变化特征。【结果】中国节能政策注意力强度呈现出倒U型发展趋势,后期注意力强度不够突出;注意力广度从逐步扩大转为回落态势,关注内容与现阶段节能目标的结合不够;发文主体合作度从较为分散的合作发文状态转为集中合作状态,但合作主体仅集中在少数部门。4项样本节能政策的PMC指数分别为6.21、6.36、7.52、7.83,两项可接受,两项良好;样本政策注意力强度整体较低,注意力广度不断提升。【结论】建议进一步提升中国节能政策的注意力强度、强调政策措施与中国节能政策目标的贴合性、加深部门合作颁布政策协同力度、强化中国节能政策的战略统筹设计。

[Objective] To explore the attention evolution of China’s energy-saving policies since the reform and opening-up, reveal the internal laws and characteristics of energy-saving policies,provide policy suggestions for the formulation and optimization of energy-saving policies in the future, and then improve the overall level of the government’s energy-saving and emission reduction work. [Methods] Taking the energy-saving policy texts issued by the central government of China from 1978 to 2021 as the research object, this study constructed an analytical framework from the three dimensions of attention intensity, attention span, and cooperation degree of government departments to described the stage characteristics of China’s energy-saving policies attention evolution by the text measurement. Then conducted a policy modeling research consistency(PMC) index to evaluate the four sample policy texts and analyze the characteristics of attention evolution of those sample policies in detail. [Results] The attention intensity of China’s energy-saving policies presents an inverted U-shaped development trend, and the attention intensity in the later stage is not prominent enough. The attention span has changed from gradually expanding to falling,and the concerned content can not combine the current energy-saving goals enough. The cooperation degree of government departments has changed from a relatively scattered state of cooperation to a state of centralized cooperation. However, the cooperation subjects are only concentrated in a few departments.The PMC indexes of the four sample energysaving policies are 6.21, 6.36, 7.52 and 7.83, of which the first two are within a acceptable level and the last two are within a good level. The attention intensity of the sample energy-saving policies is generally low, and the attention span is constantly improving. [Conclusion] It is suggested to further enhance the attention intensity of China’s energy-saving policies, emphasize the compatibility of policy measures with the objectives of China’s energy-saving policies, deepen the coordination between departments in issuing policies, and strengthen the strategic planning of China’s energy-saving policies.