近10年长江中下游典型水稻主产区种粮大户的耕地承包规模变化研究——以江西省北部为例

Study on the Change of Farmland Contracting Scale of Large Grain Growing Households in Typical Main Rice Production Areas in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in the Past 10 Years: A Case Study of Northern Jiangxi Province

研究目的:以长江中下游典型的水稻主产区江西省北部的南昌、九江、上饶等市辖区为研究区,研究近10年种粮大户耕地承包规模的时空变化及其影响因素。研究方法:Theil指数、空间自相关模型、地理探测器。研究结果:(1)与2011年相比,2021年耕地承包规模显著增加,种粮大户数量由6 298户增加到26 781户,耕地承包面积由138.2万亩增加为462.91万亩,耕地的大户承包率由10.94%提升至28.85%,但种粮大户的户均耕地承包面积由219.43亩减少为172.85亩。(2)Theil指数由2011年0.831 2下降至2021年0.610 7,表明研究区耕地承包规模的空间异质性显著,但空间异质性显著下降。(3)种粮大户的耕地承包规模呈现以鄱阳湖平原的高高集聚和两翼山地丘陵农业区低低集聚为主的空间集聚特征。(4)农业机械总动力、农业总产值、乡村人口和农村劳动力等是种粮大户耕地承包规模空间分异的主要原因,双因子交互作用能够更好地解释承包规模的空间分异。研究结论:在政府鼓励农村土地流转和发展农业适度规模经营的政策背景下,种粮大户的耕地承包规模受自然环境、农业发展水平及社会经济等要素的共同影响;因地制宜地加大山地丘陵农业区机耕道路建设、推进农业机械小型化、健全土地流转机制,推进农村规模化经营体制的创新,发展粮食生产、加工和销售一体化的农村专业化合作组织,有序引导种粮大户在合作组织中发挥专业化作用,推动农业规模化发展。

The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal changes and influencing factors of farmland contracting scale of large grain growing households in the municipal districts of Nanchang,Jiujiang,and Shangrao in northern Jiangxi Province,a typical rice production region in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The research methods includ Theil index,spatial autocorrelation model and geographic detector.The results showed that:1)compared with 2011,the contracting scale of farmland of large grain growing households significantly enlarged in 2021.The number of large grain growing households increased from 6298 to 26781,the area of contracted farmland increased from 1.382 million mu to 4.629 million mu,and the rate of contracted farmland increased from 10.94%to 28.85%.However,the average contracted farmland area per household decreased from 219.43 mu to 172.85 mu.2)The Theil index decreased from 0.8312 in 2011 to 0.6107 in 2021,indicating significantly decreased spatial heterogeneity in the contracting scale of farmland in the study area.3)The spatial distribution characteristic of contracting scale of farmland of large grain growing households demonstrates agglomeration,with high agglomeration in the Poyang Lake Plain and low agglomeration in the mountainous agricultural areas on both wings of the study area.4)The total power of agricultural machinery,total agricultural output value,rural population and rural labor force are the primary factors for the spatial variation of contracting scale of farmland,and the double-factor interaction explains the spatial variation of contracting scale of farmland better.In conclusion,against the background of the policy of encouraging rural land transfer and developing moderate scale agricultural operations,the contracting scale of farmland of large grain growing households is influenced by the combination of the natural environment,the level of agricultural development and the socio-economic factors.It is suggested to strengthen the construction of machine roads in mountainous agricultural areas,to develop the miniaturization of agricultural machinery,to improve the land transfer mechanism,to promote innovation in the system of large-scale rural operation,to develop specialized rural cooperative organizations that integrate food production,processing and marketing,to orderly guide large grain growing households to play a specialized role in cooperative organizations,and to promote the development of large-scale agriculture.