RCEP协定对中日经贸合作的影响——基于GTAP模型

The Impact of RCEP Agreement on China-Japan Economic and Trade Cooperation:Based on GTAP Model

2021年12月底,RCEP协定正式生效.中日两国作为RCEP协定下重要成员国,对RCEP的合作共赢机制将产生深远影响.首先回顾中日过往经贸合作,再以中日货物贸易关税削减为切入点解读RCEP协定文本.运用GTAP模型评估协定生效第11年、第16年、第21年关税下调带来的中日双边经贸规模和结构效应.总体来看,关税削减带来了两国GDP增长、福利水平提高、贸易条件改善,并扩大了两国之间的贸易规模,但两国不同部门的产出变化情况不同.最后基于以上分析,分别从货物贸易、原产地规则、数字贸易、投资领域对中日两国经贸合作前景进行展望.

The RCEP agreement officially entered into force at the end of December 2021.As important members of the RCEP Agreement,China and Japan will exert far-reaching influence on the winwin cooperation mechanism of the RcEP.First,we will review the past economic and trade cooperation between China and Japan,and then interpret the text of the RCEP agreement from the perspective of tariff reduction in trade in goods between China and Japan.The GTAP model was used to evaluate the scale and structure effects of tariff reduction in the llth,16th and 21st years after the agreement came into force.Overall,tariff cuts have led to GDP growth in both countries,higher welfare levels,better terms of trade,and expanded trade between the two countries,but output changes in different sectors have been different in both countries.Finally,based on the above analysis,the prospects of economic and trade cooperation between China and Japan are forecasted from the aspects of trade in goods,rules of origin,digital trade and investment.