经济政策不确定性对我国对外直接投资的影响研究——基于贸易开放的中介效应分析

A Study on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment——An Analysis of the Intermediary Effect Based on Trade Opening

投资环境的不确定性会影响企业对外投资的战略和决策,尤其是投资东道国经济政策的调整,已成为影响企业“走出去”投资战略的重要因素。本文通过构建中介效应面板数据模型,检验投资东道国经济政策不确定性对我国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响以及投资东道国贸易开放水平的中介效应。理论和实证研究结果均表明:投资东道国的经济政策不确定性对OFDI有直接抑制作用;贸易开放水平表现出显著中介效应,即投资东道国经济政策的不确定性下降会通过提高贸易开放水平,进一步拉动OFDI增长;经济政策不确定性通过出口贸易开放度对OFDI的间接影响略低于通过进口贸易开放度对OFDI的间接影响。基于以上结论,从宏观层面对促进我国对外直接投资提出政策建议。

The uncertainty of investment environment will affect the strategy and decision of enterprises'outbound investment,especially the adjustment of economic policies of investment host countries,which has become an important factor affecting enterprises'"going out"investment strategy.This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty in investment host countries on China's outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)and the mediating effect of trade openness level in investment host countries by constructing a mediating effect panel data model.Both theoretical and empirical findings show that:economic policy uncertainty in investment host countries has a direct inhibitory effect on OFDI;the level of trade openness shows a significant mediating effect,i.e.,a decrease in economic policy uncertainty in investment host countries will further boost OFDI growth by increasing the level of trade openness.The indirect impact of economic policy uncertainty on OFDI through export trade openness is slightly lower than the indirect impact on OFDI through import trade openness.Based on the above findings,policy recommendations are made to promote China's OFDI from the macro level.