许昌烟区气温突变特征及其对烤烟根茎类病害的影响分析

Characteristics of Temperature Mutation in Xuchang Tobacco Area and Its Influence on Tobacco Root and Stem Diseases

为研究气温突变对烤烟病虫害的影响,采用线性趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall法、滑动t检测法对1958—2021年许昌市的气温变化进行了分析,结果表明:许昌烤烟大田生长期的平均气温呈显著下降趋势,其中旺长期和成熟期呈明显下降趋势,但伸根期平均气温呈缓慢上升趋势。烤烟伸根期气温在2007年前后发生了由低到高的气温突变;旺长期在1970年前后发生了由高到低的气温突变;成熟期在1971、1993、2001年分别发生了由高到低、由低到高、由高到低的3次气温突变。整个大田生长期的平均气温在1970和2007年出现了显著气温突变,分别与同年烤烟旺长期、伸根期的气温突变直接相关。因此,烤烟大田生长期气温总体呈下降趋势,2007年烤烟伸根期发生了气温突变,并形成“前期升温、后期降温”的变化趋势,导致近年来烤烟根茎类病害的发生特点出现了新的变化。

In order to study the impact of temperature mutation on tobacco diseases and pests,linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall method and sliding t detection method were used to analyze the temperature change in Xuchang from 1958 to 2021.The results showed that the average temperature of Xuchang flue-cured tobacco field in the growth period showed a significant downward trend,including a significant downward trend in the prosperous and mature periods and a slow upward trend in the root extension period.The temperature in root extension period of flue-cured tobacco had a sudden change from low to high around 2007,and the temperature in prosperous period had a sudden change from high to low around 1970.During the maturity period,there were three abrupt changes in temperature from high to low,from low to high and from high to low in 1971,1993 and 2001,respectively.The average temperature of the whole field growth period showed significant abrupt changes in 1970 and 2007,which were directly related to the abrupt changes in temperature during the prosperous and root extension periods of the same year.Therefore,the temperature in the field growth period of flue-cured tobacco generally showed a downward trend.In 2007,the sudden change of temperature in the root extension period of flue-cured tobacco formed a change trend of“early warming,late cooling”,which led to new changes in the occurrence characteristics of tobacco root and stem diseases in recent years.