基于随机森林算法的辽宁省建筑业碳排放影响因素重要度研究

The Importance Research of Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Construction Industry in Liaoning ProvinceBased on Random Forest Algorithm

根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)提出的碳排放核算方法,基于全生命周期法建立了建筑业碳排放核算模型。通过收集整理建筑业碳排放相关影响因素,引入随机森林算法,并以2006—2020年辽宁省建筑业相关数据进行实例分析,得出了近年来在辽宁省建筑业碳排放的各项影响因素中,重要度较高的为人均生产总值、施工面积、从业人数、建筑业人均生产总值、能源强度和人口数量。最后,结合2006—2020年辽宁省建筑业碳排放变化情况及关键影响因素对建筑业提出了减排建议。

According to the carbon emission accounting method proposed by IPCC,the carbon emission accounting model of construction industry is established based on the whole life cycle method.By collecting and sorting out the influencing factors of construction industry carbon emissions,introducing random forest algorithm,and taking the relevant data of construction industry in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2020 as an example,it is concluded that among the influencing factors of construction industry carbon emissions in Liaoning Province in recent years,important influencing factors are per capita GDP,construction area,number of employees,per capita GDP of construction industry,energy intensity and population.Finally,based on the changes of carbon emissions from construction industry in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2020 and the key influencing factors,emission reduction suggestions for the construction industry are proposed.