人民币实际有效汇率变动与我国对“一带一路”国家OFDI的实证研究

Research on the Impact of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes in“One Belt and One Road”on China's Export and OFDI

通过构建包含汇率、出口和OFDI三种因素的一般均衡理论模型,分析汇率变动对出口和OFDI的影响。理论分析表明,本国货币升值将抑制其出口,但是将促进其对外直接投资。同时采用考虑转口贸易因素的贸易权重法构建“一带一路”人民币实际有效汇率,以反映人民币在区域层面的币值变动。在此基础之上,使用时变参数的向量自回归模型实证分析沿线国家的人民币汇率变动对出口和OFDI的影响,并与总体进行对比。实证结果与理论分析相反,文章从人民币真实币值被高估、比较优势和疫情冲击对中国出口的叠加影响三个方面解释了人民币升值对出口的促进作用,同时从汇率预期和汇率波动两个方面解释了人民币升值对OFDI的抑制作用。此外,还对比分析了总体与沿线国家出口与OFDI的相互影响。最后给出文章的结论及建议。

This paper analyzes the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on export and OFDI by constructing a general equilibrium theoretical model including exchange rate,export and OFDI.Theoretical analysis shows that the appreciation of domestic currency will restrain its export,but will promote its foreign direct investment.At the same time,the real effective exchange rate of RMB“One Belt and One Road”initiative is constructed by using the trade weight method considering the factors of entrepot trade,so as to reflect the value changes of RMB at the regional level.On this basis,the vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters is used to empirically analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on exports and OFDI of countries along the belt and road,and make a comparison with the overall.The empirical results are contrary to the theoretical analysis.The paper explains the promotion effect of RMB appreciation on export from three aspects:the overvaluation of the real value of RMB,comparative advantage and the overlapping impact of epidemic impact on China's export.The inhibition effect of RMB appreciation on OFDI from two aspects:exchange rate expectation and exchange rate fluctuation.In addition,the paper makes a comparative analysis of the interaction between export and OFDI of the countries along the belt and road.Finally,the conclusions and suggestions are given.