考虑群体差异的低碳出行意向与行为一致性研究

A study on group difference between low-carbon transportation intention and consistent behavior

为探究城市居民低碳出行意向与行为差异的原因和异质性,基于大中小城市、老中青群体1263名居民的低碳出行问卷调查数据,采用双变量Probit模型和组间平均边际效应(AME),分析了城市和群体间低碳出行意向与行为一致性的影响因素及群体差异。结果表明:有低碳出行意向与行为的居民比例仅为12.6%,有低碳出行意向而未向行为转变的居民占55.3%,意向与行为不一致的现象在一线城市和青年群体中尤为明显。从平均边际效应的结果看,有无私家车是导致一线、二线城市居民和中、青年群体低碳出行意向与行为不一致的关键因素。环境意识和主观规范对老年群体的低碳出行意向与行为一致性具有更显著的积极影响。研究所揭示的影响不同群体低碳出行意向与行为一致性的关键因素,可为低碳政策的异质化实施提供理论参考。

As residents'low-carbon transportation plays a crucial role in alleviating transportation carbon emissions,many studies concentrate on the low-carbon transportation intention or behavior,but the consistency between the intention and behavior of different groups is neglected.Based on the low-carbon transportation questionnaire data of 1263 residents in large,medium,and small cities that sorted into the old,middle-aged,and young groups,this study analyzed the factors influencing the consistency of low-carbon transportation intention and behavior,focusing on the region and generation difference,using bivariate Probit model and between-group average marginal effect(AME).The results show that the proportion of residents with both low-carbon transportation intention and relevant behavior is only 12.6%,while the proportion of residents who have low-carbon intention without consistent behavior account for 55.3%,and this inconsistency is particularly obvious for residents in large cities and the youth group.By analyzing the average marginal effect,the private car is a crucial factor contributing to inconsistentcy between intention and behavior among residents of large and medium-sized cities and middle-aged youth groups.Environmental awareness and subjective norm have more significant positive effects on middle-aged and elderly groups.The findings from this study provide an understanding of the key factors influencing the consistency of low-carbon transportation intention and behavior among different groups of people,and references for the heterogeneous implementation of low-carbon policies,thereby promoting residents'low-carbon travel guidance.