贸易政策不确定性对企业出口升级的影响研究——基于出口技术复杂度的角度

Study on the impact of trade policy uncertainty on enterprises export upgrading——from the perspective of export technological sophistication

世界经济的下行风险和贸易保护主义使得出口企业面临的贸易政策不确定性增加,为探究贸易政策不确定性对企业技术升级的影响,从出口技术复杂度的角度,基于2000—2007年中国海关贸易数据库和中国工业企业数据库的匹配数据,利用中国加入世界贸易组织及获得与美国的永久正常贸易伙伴关系地位为准自然冲击,通过倍差法实证模型,研究贸易政策不确定性下降对企业出口技术复杂度的影响效应,并对倍差法模型的有效性进行检验;探究贸易政策不确定性下降作用于企业出口技术复杂度的具体影响机制,划分贸易方式、企业类型和企业出口行为进行异质性分析。研究表明:贸易政策不确定性的下降对企业出口技术复杂度起到了促进作用,这种促进作用以扩大企业出口规模、增强企业创新能力为直接与间接的影响渠道,在加工贸易企业上的表现明显大于一般贸易企业,在民营企业、外资企业和存续企业上的表现也十分显著。为争取稳定有利的外部环境,国家需要做好长期战略部署和发展规划的,加快构建中国与其他国家的多边贸易体制;企业需要聚力突破关键技术,加快促进数字化转型,建设以我为主的全球价值链。

The downside risks of the world economy and trade protectionism have increased the uncertainty of trade policies faced by export enterprises.In order to explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty on enterprises technology upgrading,from the perspective of export technological sophistication and based on the relevant data in the China Customs Trade Database and the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database in 2000—2007,this paper uses the natural impact of China s entry into the World Trade Organization and its permanent normal trade partnership status with the United States,studies the impact of the decline in trade policy uncertainty on the export technological sophistication of enterprises through the difference-in-difference empirical model,and examines the effectiveness of the difference-in-difference model.Then,this paper explores the specific impact mechanism of the decline in trade policy uncertainty on the export technological sophistication of enterprises,and conducts heterogeneity analysis categorized according to trade mode,enterprise type and enterprise export behavior.The research shows that the decline in trade policy uncertainty has played a role in promoting the export technological sophistication of enterprises.This promotion effect takes place directly and indirectly through expanding the enterprises export scale and enhancing the enterprises innovation capabilities,and is more prominent in process trade enterprises than general trade enterprises.Its performance in private enterprises,foreign-funded enterprises and surviving enterprises is also remarkable.In order to strive for a stable and favorable external environment,the government needs to make long-term strategic deployment and development planning,and accelerate the establishment of a multilateral trading system between China and other countries.Enterprises need to focus on breakthroughs in key technologies,speed up digital transformation,and build a global value chain in which they play a central role.