交通运输领域政府购买服务风险量化模型研究

Risk Quantification Model of Government Purchase of Service in Transportation Field

现阶段,交通运输领域采用政府购买服务的风险管理多基于主观判断。为了从众多复杂影响因素中量化潜在风险,在分析交通运输行业的特点及风险内涵的基础上,根据风险分解原理,确立了以承接主体、购买内容、预算管理、筹备决策和执行监督为一级风险要素的风险指标体系。采用模糊综合评价法,构建了交通运输领域政府购买服务风险量化模型。以交通运输领域某科技项目为例,应用所建模型对政府购买风险做量化分析,并将该类项目2020年和2021年的管理数据进行对比。结果表明,采用量化分析优化管理后,项目按期完成率较上一年提高了7.1%。该模型能够对政府购买服务过程中的风险和薄弱环节进行识别,进而提升交通运输领域政府管理水平。

At present,risk management of government purchase of service in transportation field is mostly based on subjective judgment.In order to quantify potential risks from numerous influencing factors,based on the analysis of the characteristics and risk connotations of the transportation industry,and according to the principle of risk decomposition,a risk indicator system has been established with the first level risk elements of the undertaking subject,purchase content,budget management,preparation decision-making,and execution supervision.Then a risk quantitative model of government purchase of service in transportation field is constructed using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Taking a project in the field of trans-portation as an example,the proposed model is applied to conduct a quantitative analysis of purchase risks,and the management data of this type of project in 2020 and 2021 are compared.The results show that after using quantitative analysis to optimize management,the on-time completion rate of the project has increased by 7.1%compared to the previous year.The proposed model can identify the risk and weak links in the process of government purchasing services,thereby improving the government′s management ability in the field of transportation.