京津冀地区非道路机械清单建立与政策情景分析

Non-road mobile source inventory establishment and policy scenario analysis in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)Region,China

非道路机械是大气污染物的重要来源,已经逐渐引起了人们的关注.本研究旨在建立2020年京津冀地区典型非道路机械排放清单,分析排放控制政策和成本.结果表明:2020年京津冀地区典型非道路机械CO、HC、NO_(x)、PM_(2.5)、SO2的排放量分别为286.96×10^(3)、232.17×10^(3)、364.30×10^(3)、34.15×10^(3)、4.14×10^(3) t.农业机械的排放量明显大于建筑机械的排放量,约占总量的46.36%~91.62%.在综合情景(IS)下,2030年CO、HC、NO_(x)、PM_(2.5)、SO2的排放量与2020年基准情景(BAU)相比分别增加了-54.16%、-33.76%、-42.46%、-54.07%、-10.37%.在单一控制措施下,更新排放标准(UES)对5种污染物的减排效果最好,淘汰老旧非道路机械(CIV)对NO_(x)和PM_(2.5)的减排效果好,提高电气化水平(RLE)对HC的减排效果好.为了分析各城市污染控制政策的差异性,本文计算了13个城市的污染物单位减排成本,为3.61~9.01元·g^(-1),并以人均GDP与单位污染物减排成本之比作为各城市优先实施减排政策的评价指标.结果表明,北京、天津、唐山、石家庄应优先实施非道路机械的污染物减排政策,由此可以在最小的经济成本下减少更多的污染物排放.

Non-road mobile source is an important source of air pollutants,which has gradually attracted people's attention.The purpose of this study is to establish an emission inventory of typical non-road mobile sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region,and to analyze emission control policies and costs.The results show that the emissions of CO,HC,NO_(x),PM_(2.5) and SO2 from typical non-road mobile source s in BTH region in 2020 were 286.96×10^(3),232.17×10^(3),364.30×10^(3),34.15×10^(3) and 4.14×10^(3) t.The emission of agricultural machinery was larger than that of construction machinery,accounting for 46.36%~91.62%of the total.Under the Integrated Scenario(IS),the emissions of CO,HC,NO_(x),PM_(2.5),and SO2 in 2030 increased by-54.16%,-33.76%,-42.46%,-54.07%,and-10.37%.Under a single control scenario,the Update emission standards(UES)scenario has the best emission reduction effect on the five pollutants,and the Controls on in-use vehicles(CIV)scenario has the best emission reduction effect on NO_(x) and PM_(2.5),Raise the level of electrification(RLE)scenario has a good effect on HC emission reduction.In order to analyze the differences of pollution control measures among cities,the unit costs of reducing emissions for 13 cities were calculated in this study,which ranged from 3.61 to 9.01 yuan·g^(-1),as well as the ratio of per capita GDP to emission reduction cost per unit is used as an index to evaluate the priority of implementing emission reduction policies in each city.The results showed that Beijing,Tianjin,Tangshan and Shijiazhuang should be given priority to the implementation of emission reduction policies,which could reduce more pollutant emissions with the least economic burden.