汇率波动、进口市场转换与中国企业进口稳定

Exchange Rate Volatility,Import Market Switching and Chinese Firms'Import Stability

企业转换进口市场具有化解外部风险和平抑进口波动的重要功能。本文系统描述了中国企业进口市场转换的特征事实,并探究了进口市场转换在稳定进口方面的重要作用和内在机制。研究结果表明:(1)中国企业转换进口市场的行为普遍存在,大约有90%的企业在长期内转换进口市场,大约有76%的企业在短期内转换进口市场。(2)汇率波动会显著加剧企业的进口波动,转换进口市场能够显著抑制汇率波动对企业进口稳定的负效应,该结论在进行内生性处理以及稳健性检验之后依旧成立。(3)企业转换进口市场主要通过进口来源地的供给波动和进口市场之间的关联性两个机制发挥作用,进口市场转换能够显著抑制汇率波动对非国有企业、小企业和一般贸易企业进口稳定的负效应。国家应高度重视进口市场转换在“稳进口”中的战略性作用,积极营造良好的外部环境,帮助企业降低转换进口市场的固定成本和可变成本,提高企业转换进口市场的能力和积极性。

Import market switching of firms has an essential function that helps mitigate external risks and reduce import volatility.This paper presents a systematic description of the stylized facts of Chinese firms'import market switching and explores the crucial role and internal mechanisms of import market switching in stabilizing imports.The results show:(1)Switching import markets is a common practice among Chinese firms.Around 90%of firms switch import markets in the long run,and about 76%of firms switch import markets in the short term.(2)Exchange rate volatility significantly exacerbates firms'import volatility,while import market switching significantly suppresses the negative effect of exchange rate volatility on firms'import stability.This conclusion remains valid after endogenous processing and robustness check.(3)Firms'import market switching plays a role mainly through two mechanisms,which include supply fluctuations of import sources and linkages between import markets.Import market switching significantly suppresses the negative effect of exchange rate volatility on the import stability of non-state-owned enterprises,small enterprises,and ordinary trade firms.China should attach great importance to the strategic role of import market switching in stabilizing imports,create a favorable external environment,and assist firms in reducing the fixed and variable costs of import market switching,which will enhance firms'ability and initiative of import market switching.