2010—2021年无锡市流感发病情况与气象因素的关联性研究

Study on the association between influenza incidence and meteorological factors in Wuxi City from 2010 to 2021

目的分析2010—2021年无锡市流感发病情况与气象因素的关联性,为制定流感防控措施提供依据。方法采用Spearman秩相关分析流感发病例数与气象因素之间的相关性。结果2010—2021年无锡市流感发病例数集中在每年11月份至第二年3月份。2010—2021年无锡市每月流感发病例数与每月平均气温(r=-0.367)、平均风速(r=-0.199)呈负相关,与每月平均气压(r=0.371)呈正相关,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01);与每月平均相对湿度、降水量的相关性差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论每月平均气温、平均气压、平均风速对无锡市流感发病例数有较大影响,结合流感发病情况及与气象因素的相关性进行回溯性研究,对建立流感预测预警模型有重大意义。

Objective To analyze the correlation between influenza incidence and meteorological factors in Wuxi City from 2010 to 2021 to provide evidence for the formulation of influenza prevention and control measures.Methods Spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the correlation between the number of influenza cases and meteorological factors.Results From 2010 to 2021,the number of influenza cases in Wuxi City was concentrated from November to March of the following year.From 2010 to 2021,the number of monthly influenza cases in Wuxi City was negatively correlated with monthly mean air temperature(r=-0.367)and average wind speed(r=-0.199),and positively correlated with monthly mean air pressure(r=0.371),with statistical significance(P<0.01).There was no statistical significance in the correlation with monthly average relative humidity and precipitation(P>0.05).Conclusion The monthly average temperature,average barometric pressure and average wind speed have great influence on the number of influenza cases in Wuxi City.The retrospective study combined with the incidence of influenza and its correlation with meteorological factors is of great significance for the establishment of influenza prediction and early warning model.