基于组合赋权的装配式建筑施工风险模糊综合评价

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Prefabricated Building Construction Risk Based onPortfolio Empowerment

装配式建筑施工过程中存在的风险因素较多,采用科学的方法对风险因素做出评价,并针对评价结果采取相应应对措施,是降低装配式建筑施工风险发生概率的有效途径。首先,对装配式建筑施工风险因素进行识别,建立装配式建筑施工风险评价指标体系;其次,根据风险发生的概率及带来的损失确定风险评价等级;再次,运用0-6评分与变异系数法确定指标组合权重,基于该权重构建装配式建筑施工风险评价模型。最后,运用该模型对A市某装配式混凝土结构住宅项目进行实例研究,并得出人的风险、物的风险、技术风险、管理风险及环境风险所处的风险等级分别为Ⅳ级、Ⅳ级、Ⅱ级、Ⅳ级、Ⅲ级的结论,项目总体风险为Ⅳ级,即风险较低,处于可控状态。

There are many risk factors in the construction process of prefabricated building.It is an effective way to reduce the occurrence probability of prefabricated building construction risk by using scientific methods and taking corresponding countermeasures according to the evaluation results.Firstly,the risk factors of prefabricated building construction are identified and the risk evaluation index system is established;secondly,the risk evaluation level is determined according to the probability of risk occurrence and the loss;Thirdly,the index combination weight is determined by 0-6 score and variation coefficient method,and the risk evaluation model of prefabricated building construction is constructed based on the weight.Finally,using the model of A city A prefabricated concrete structure residential project example study,and it is concluded that the risk,risk,technical risk,management risk and environmental risk of grade,grade,grade,grade,grade,project overall risk,the risk is low,in a controllable state.