不确定性、市场边际与中国企业的进口增长

Uncertainty,Market Margins,and Import Growth of Chinese Firms

不确定性上升是我国进口企业当前面临的主要风险,研究进口企业应对不确定性的行为变化就成为一个重大现实问题。基于“市场边际”视角,本文将中国企业的进口变化分解为进口市场扩展边际和进口市场集约边际,探究了不确定性影响企业进口市场边际的效应和渠道。研究发现:(1)从“企业层面”来看,不确定性上升对企业进口市场扩展边际具有显著的促进效应,对企业进口市场集约边际具有显著的抑制效应,促进效应大于抑制效应,从而不确定性上升总体表现为显著促进了中国企业的进口增长。基于“企业-产品层面”的估计结果也是稳健的。(2)不确定性对进口市场边际的影响具有企业异质性和产品异质性。(3)从影响渠道来看,不确定性上升能够通过促使企业调整进口市场组合影响企业的进口市场边际,贸易成本和供给冲击是重要调节机制。本文揭示了企业积极调整进口市场组合是不确定性导致企业进口增长的深层原因和内在力量,这为国家一直倡导进口市场多元化、优化国际市场布局提供了理论支撑。

The rise of uncertainty is the biggest risk faced by Chinese import firms.It is of great significance to explore the reaction of import firms in the face of uncertainty and ensure the stability and sustained growth of imports.From the perspective of“market margin”,this paper decomposes the change in imports of Chinese firms into the import market extensive and intensive margin,and explores the effects of uncertainty on the import market margins of firms and its channels.The research results show that:(1)Examining from the“firm level”,the increase of uncertainty has a significant promoting effect on the extensive margin of the import market,and a significant inhibiting effect on the intensive margin of the import market.The promoting effect is greater than the inhibiting effect in absolute values,so the overall performance of the increase of uncertainty is to significantly promote the import growth of Chinese firms.The estimation results based on the“firm-product level”is also robust.(2)The influence of uncertainty on import market margin is heterogeneous across firms and products.(3)From the perspective of influence channels,the increase of uncertainty can affect the import market margin of firms by forcing them to adjust the import market mix,and trade cost and supply shock are also important adjustment mechanisms.This paper reveals that firms'active adjustment of import market mix is the deep cause and internal force of the uncertainty to promote firms'import growth,which provides theoretical support for the government to advocate import market diversification and optimize the international market layout.