贝叶斯决策优化水库分期抗旱调度策略研究

Study on optimizing drought-resistant strategy of staged reservoir operation based on Bayes decision

受全球气候变化和日益增强的人类活动的影响,频繁发生的干旱对社会经济发展带来极大冲击。研究水库分期抗旱调度策略对水资源高效利用和抗旱减灾有着显著的作用。以供水保证率最大和供水破坏深度最小为目标函数,在最小风险贝叶斯决策的多年可供水量组合情景下,采用蜂群算法和逆序递推法确定最优的水库抗旱调度策略。以黑河金盆水库为实例,基于贝叶斯联合逆序递推抗旱调度策略与常规调度、传统逆序递推和优化逆序递推的抗旱调度策略进行对比分析,前者既减少了极端干旱条件下极端缺水的几率,又提高了供水保证率、降低了供水破坏深度。说明贝叶斯联合逆序递推的抗旱调度策略提高了水库的抵御极端干旱的能力,为抗旱调度提供了理论依据。

Under the influence of global climate change and ever-increasing human activities,frequent droughts have imposed great impacts on social and economic developments.The study on drought-resistant strategies for staged reservoir operation can produce a remarkable effect on efficient utilization of water resources,drought-resistance,and disaster reduction.This paper examines how to determine an optimal drought-resistant scheduling strategy in multi-year available water supply combination scenarios based on the minimum risk Bayesian decision,using a bee colony algorithm and a reverse recursion method that is equipped with an objective function to maximize water supply guarantee rate and minimize water supply failure depth.In a case study of the Jinpen reservoir in the Heihe River basin,we make a comparative analysis of the drought-resistant strategy of its operation based on the Bayes joint reverse sequential recursion,against those based on conventional operation,traditional reverse sequential recursion,and optimized reverse sequential recursion.We find that the former can not only reduce the probability of extreme water shortage under extreme drought conditions,but also improve the water supply guarantee rate and reduce the water supply failure depth.This shows the Bayes decision-based operation strategy raises the capability of a reservoir against extreme droughts and lays a theoretical basis for drought-resistant operation.