粮食主产区政策对农业碳排放的影响

The Impacts of Policies in Main Grain-producing Areas on Agricultural Carbon Emissions

设立粮食主产区,这是国家实施的一项保障粮食安全的特殊战略。主产区作为中国粮食生产的重要基地,也是中国农业温室气体排放的主要区域,从新形势下的粮食安全来看,日益突出的生态安全问题逐渐成为制约我国农业可持续发展的瓶颈。本文将2004年粮食主产区政策的实施作为一次自然实验,利用双重差分模型,实证检验粮食主产区政策对农业碳排放的影响效应,并探究粮食主产区的碳减排机制。经过研究发现:(1)从基准差分模型回归结果来看,粮食主产区政策对农业碳排放具有显著的“减排”效应,即粮食主产区基本实现了“增产且减排”的政策目标。(2)从单位面积农业碳排放回归结果来看,粮食主产区政策显著降低了主产区整体及三大流域的农业碳排放,其中对长江流域碳排放的削减效应最大。(3)从政策效应的机制分析结果来看,扩大土地经营规模是粮食主产区政策产生减排效应的重要机制。因此,应大力推进种植业和养殖业的规模化,发展适度规模经营,进一步优化农业产业结构,增加低碳产业比重,从而实现“粮食增产”与“生态环境”协同发展的目标。

The establishment of major grain-producing areas is a special strategy implemented to ensure the food security.As important bases of China’s grain production,these areas are also major contributors to agricultural greenhouse gas emissions.From the perspective of food security under the new situation,the increasingly prominent ecological security problem has gradually become the bottleneck restricting the sustainable development of agriculture in China.In this paper,the implementation of the policies of major grain-producing areas in 2004 is taken as a natural experiment,and the double difference model is used to empirically test the effect of the policies on the carbon emission,and explore the carbon emission reduction mechanism in the main grain-producing areas.The research findings of this paper are as follows:(1)From the regression results of the benchmark difference model,the policies of the main grain-producing areas have a significant emission reduction effect on agricultural carbon emissions.In other words,the main grain producing-areas have basically realized the policy objective of“increasing production without aggravating pollution”.(2)From the regression results of agricultural carbon intensity,the policy of major grain-producing areas has significantly reduced the agricultural carbon emission intensity in these areas and the three major basins,with the largest reduction effect observed in the Yangtze River basin.(3)The mechanism analysis results of policy effects show that the expansion of land management scale is an important mechanism to produce emission reduction effects.Therefore,it is recommended to promote the scale of planting and aquaculture,develop appropriate scale operation,further optimize the agricultural industrial structure,and increase the proportion of low-carbon industries,so as to achieve the goal of coordinated development of grain production and ecological environment.