粤港澳大湾区对外开放区域差异对经济增长的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Regional Differences in Opening up of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area on Economic Growth

对外开放是世界级湾区建设发展的重要特征,构建开放型经济新体制是粤港澳大湾区实现世界级湾区目标的重要手段。基于湾区城市对外开放的区域差异,本研究采用2012-2020年各城市的面板数据,从线性、非线性角度,检验了湾区扩大对外开放对经济增长的影响。结果发现,粤港澳大湾区扩大对外开放能实现经济增长,但这种促进存在着显著的空间差异性,总体上呈现非线性的倒“U”型。当对外开放度较低时,对外开放对经济增长的推动作用较小;随着对外开放度的提高,经济增长得到的促进作用越大;当对外开放度过大时,扩大开放则会阻碍经济发展。基于此,粤港澳大湾区应借助“一带一路”、粤港澳大湾区建设的政策,加强与国际社会、港澳地区的交流,形成更大范围、更宽领域、更深层次的对外开放格局。在秉持对外开放理念的基础上,结合湾区中各城市的发展状况做出适应性调整,最大程度地释放经济潜能,跻身成为世界一流湾区。

Opening up is an important feature of the development of a world-class Bay Area,and building a new system of open economy is an important means for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to achieve its goal of becoming a world-class Bay Area.Based on regional differences in the opening up of the cities in the Greater Bay Area,the panel data of each city from 2012 to 2020 are used to test the impact of opening-up further of the Greater Bay Area on economic growth from linear and nonlinear perspectives.The results show that opening up further of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area can achieve economic growth,but there are significant spatial differences in this promotion,showing a nonlinear inverted"U"shape on the whole.When the degree of opening to the outside world is low,the role of opening-up in promoting economic growth is small;With the increase of opening to the outside world,economic growth will be promoted more;When the degree of opening-up is too high,further opening up will hinder economic development.In view of this,the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area need to strengthen exchanges with the international community,Hong Kong or Macao SAR with the help of the Belt and Road Initiative and the policies on the development of the GBA,and form a pattern of opening-up with a wider scope,more fields and greater depth.On the basis of standing for the vision of opening up to the outside world,the Greater Bay Area will make adaptive adjustments in light of the development of cities in GBA,release the economic potential to maximum extent,and become a world-class Bay Area.