我国天然气进口安全评价及影响因素研究

Study on Safety Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Nataural Gas Import In China

近年来,影响我国天然气进口安全的事件频发,对我国天然气进口安全进行评价并确定关键影响因素至关重要。从供应、需求、运输3个维度选取影响因素指标,通过熵权TOPSIS法测算天然气进口安全水平,建立多元线性回归模型,确定影响天然气进口安全的关键因素。结果表明:我国天然气进口安全水平大致呈W形;影响我国天然气进口安全的关键因素为地缘政治风险、储采比、途经海峡数、液化天然气(LNG)进口价格、天然气对外依存度和天然气消费增长率。为确保我国天然气进口安全,我国应明确中美贸易摩擦影响,推进多国合作;革新勘探开发技术,发展非常规天然气;加强与供应国的合作,减少高风险路径依赖,加强海上灾害预警服务;完善天然气价格机制,力争LNG市场话语权;提高天然气利用效率,大力开发可替代清洁能源。

China's economic development is inseparable from the utilization of natural gas.In recent years,there have been frequent incidents that affect the safety of natural gas imports in China.It is very important to evaluate the safety of natural gas imports and determine the key influencing factors.In this paper,the index of influencing factors is selected from the three dimensions of supply,demand and transportation,the safety level of natural gas import is measured by entropy TOPSIS method,and a multiple linear regression model is established to determine the key factors affecting the safety of natural gas import.The results show that the safety level of natural gas import in China is roughly showed W-shaped.The key factors affecting the safety of natural gas import in China are geopolitical risk,reserve-production ratio,number of channels passing through,LNG import price,natural gas dependence on foreign countries and natural gas consumption growth rate.In order to ensure the safety of China's natural gas import,China should clarify the impact of Sino-US trade friction and promote multi-country cooperation;innovatle exploration and development technology and develop unconventional natural gas;strengthen cooperation with suppliers,reduce dependence on high-risk routes,and strengthen early warning services for maritime disasters;improve the natural gas price mechanism and strive for the right to speak in LNG market;improve the utilization efficiency of natural gas and vigorously develop alternative clean energy.