1973—2022年山东省气候变化特征

Characteristics of climatic variation in Shandong Province from 1973 to 2022

为揭示山东省近50年气候时空变化特征,本文基于27个气象站1973—2022年的日级分辨率气象数据,利用滑动平均、累计距平法、M-K检验定量分析了气温降水历史变化规律和突变性,利用相关性分析和主成分分析讨论各要素对气候变化的影响,并通过小波分析揭示了不同时间尺度下的周期性。结果表明:(1)1973—2022年山东省年均温变化呈波动上升趋势,年降水量变化总体波动剧烈,突变发生于2003年。(2)冬、春两季增温明显,夏、秋两季降水不稳定,易发生洪涝灾害。(3)海拔高度与气候存在较强相关性,地理位置相近的地区气候特征相似。(4)在31年时间尺度下,气温存在显著的周期性特征,气温变化的周期约为20年;在29年时间尺度下,降水变化最显著周期约为18年。

In order to identify the spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic variation in Shandong Province in the past 50 years,with the daily-resolution meteorological data of 27 weather stations from 1973 to 2022,methods of sliding average,cumulative distance leveling and M-K test are employed to quantitatively analyze the historical variations and abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation.The impact of each factor on climate change is discussed by using correlation analysis and principal component analysis,and the periodicity at different time scales is revealed by wavelet analysis.The results showed that:①the annual average temperature change in Shandong Province showed a fluctuating upward trend from 1973 to 2022.The overall change in annual precipitation fluctuated sharply,with sudden changes occurring in 2003.②The warming in winter and spring is more obvious.The precipitation in summer and autumn is unstable and prone to flood disasters.③There is a strong correlation between altitude and climate,and the climatic characteristics of geographically similar regions are similar.④Under the 31-year time scale,there are significant cyclical characteristics of temperature,and the cycle of temperature change is about 20 years.Under the 29-year time scale,the most significant period of precipitation change is about 18 years.