国际关系中的战略稳定:进程、评估与中国担当

Strategic Stability in International Relations:Process,Assessment and China's Role

战略稳定是当今世界最重要的国际战略议题之一。当前,影响全球和地区战略稳定的消极因素正在世界各地增加,全球战略稳定体系遭受侵蚀,美俄战略稳定面临严峻挑战,欧洲战略稳定因乌克兰危机而陷入困顿;随着中国综合国力的提升和美国推动中美战略竞争的展开,中美战略稳定与亚太战略稳定愈发引起各界密切关注。中美俄在战略稳定议题上形成三角关系,并对全球和地区战略稳定产生重大影响。展望未来,如何理性把控中美关系成为亚太乃至全球确保战略稳定的关键要素,中美战略稳定的基础条件和影响因素相比美苏/美俄战略稳定更为广泛全面、更具韧性,建议从广义角度认识战略稳定,在强化自身核能力的同时,积极维护既有的国际军控机制和推进国际合作,推动加强中美沟通机制,采取针对性措施塑造战略稳定。

Strategic stability is one of the most important international issues in today's world.Currently,the negative factors affecting global and regional strategic stability increasingly mount and the global strategic stability system is under erosion:the US-Russia strategic stability confronts severe challenges,the strategic stability in Europe is in a dilemma due to the Ukraine crisis.With the improvement of China's national power and the United States'promoting US-China strategic competition,China-US strategic stability and that of Asia-Pacific have arose extensive public concern.China,the United States and Russia have formed a kind of triangle relationship which impacts on global and regional strategic stability.Looking forward,rational control of China-US relationship is the key to ensure the Asia-Pacific and global strategic stability.The general conditions and influence factors of the China-US strategic stability are more extensive and resilient than those of the US-Soviet/US-Russia strategic stability,therefore it is suggested to learn strategic stability from a broader perspective,to actively safeguard existing international arms control mechanism and promote international cooperation,to enhance the China-US communication mechanism,and to take targeted measures for strategic stability while enhancing China's own nuclear capabilities.