基于突发公共卫生事件的县域国土空间规划风险评价体系及实证研究——以邯郸市涉县主城区为例

Risk Assessment System and Empirical Research on County Territorial Spatial Planning Based on Public Health Emergencies:Taking the Main Urban Area of She County in Handan City as an Example

近年来突发公共卫生事件频发,严重影响城市运转与人民安全。为支撑高质量发展,坚持以人民为中心的发展思想,提升城市科学应对突发公共卫生事件的能力成为国土空间规划研究的热点问题。以邯郸市涉县主城区为研究对象,立足于“现状—识别—评价—策略”的逻辑,将基于传染性突发公共卫生事件的“风险评价”引入国土空间规划编制体系。通过风险识别,构建包含人口、城市治理、生态环境、基础设施、应急设施、公共服务设施的6个一级指标和15个二级指标的风险评价体系。对各设施覆盖率数据(Arc GIS),各设施核密度数据(POI,Arc GIS)和涉县人口、公园、医疗等统计数据(涉县政府,实地调研)进行标准化处理后结合风险评价模型得到涉县五个单元各项指标得分和单元风险指数。结果表明:龙山单元的风险指数最低,但医疗设施15 min覆盖率的风险指数较大;商城单元的风险指数最高,其中人口密度风险指数较高。基于研究结论,初步提出划分国土空间管控单元、统筹规划国土空间风险要素、提升国土空间治理能力的整体优化建议及优化路网质量,增加各设施(公园绿地、广场、医院、商业设施)的覆盖率,提高社区管理能力等各单元的细分优化建议。

The territorial space is the spatial carrier for people to carry out all production and living activities.The frequent occurrence of public health emergencies in recent years has seriously threatened the healthy operation of cities and people’s safety.In order to adhere to the people-centered development ideology and support high-quality development,how to incorporate the influencing factors of public health emergencies into territorial spatial planning and enhance the ability of cities to respond to public health emergencies scientifically has become a hot issue of concern.This study is based on the logic of“status quo-identification-evaluation-strategy”and introduces the“risk evaluation”based on infectious public health emergencies into the spatial planning of the city.A risk evaluation system comprising six primary indicators and 15 secondary levels is constructed from two stages of risk in the context of major public health emergencies–the prevention stage(population,urban governance)and the emergency response stage(ecological environment,infrastructure,emergency facilities,public service facilities).Based on the standardized data on the coverage of each facility(Arc GIS),the nuclear density of each facility(POI,Arc GIS),and statistics on population,parks and medical care in She County(She County Government,field research),the risk evaluation model was combined with comprehensive processing and superimposed weights to calculate the scores of each index and the risk index of each unit in the five units of She County.The natural interruption point method(Jenks)is used to classify the risk index of each unit in the main urban area of She County into three national spatial risk levels—high risk,medium risk,and low risk—from high to low.The results show that the overall spatial risk in the main urban area of She County shows a gradual decrease from south to north.The Shangcheng unit,located in the south of She County,belongs to the old urban area and has the highest risk index,higher population density,large number of old neighborhoods,and lower quality of property management services,partly with unclear jurisdiction,and poorer overall environmental quality;the risk of Chenghuangmiao unit is second only to that of Shangcheng unit,with fewer emergency shelters and higher risk in terms of perfection of emergency plans and community property management;the Zhenxing unit has higher risk in two aspects:the number of beds per 1000 people in medical and health institutions and the number of flat-disaster conversion spaces.Yudaihe unit has a higher risk in three aspects:population density,lifeline density,and 15 min coverage of medical facilities on foot.Longshan unit,located in the northern part of She County,has the lowest risk index,low population density,a large number of new communities with good environments,and strong property management,but the risk index of 15 min coverage of medical facilities is higher.Based on the results of the study,overall optimization recommendations are proposed to divide the territorial spatial control units,plan the risk elements of the territorial space in an integrated manner,and improve the territorial spatial governance capacity.Suitable optimization suggestions are made for each unit in She County—such as strengthening the quality and accessibility of the road network,rationalizing the allocation of hospitals,commercial and other facilities;improving the construction of parks,squares,etc.;improving the construction of lifeline systems;and improving community management capabilities.Territorial spatial planning is an important tool for the state and government to macro-regulate the urban ecological environment,social economy,and rational allocation and use of resources,while territorial space is the vehicle for all human production and life.It is important to introduce risk assessment based on infectious public health emergencies into the territorial spatial planning system to enhance its ability to respond to public health emergencies.However,there are still some limitations in the study,and the index database needs to be further improved.With the development and continuous improvement of the theoretical system,the risk indicators will be supplemented to form a comprehensive risk evaluation system for land and space,so as to achieve the purpose of guiding rapid scientific and effective responses to public health emergencies at the city level.