机器人应用的岗位转换效应及就业敏感性群体特征——来自微观个体层面的经验证据

The Job Transition Effects and Employment Sensitivity among Specific Groups of Robot Applications:Empirical Evidence from a Micro-individual Level Perspective

已有文献主要关注机器人应用的就业替代效应,并未重视机器人应用冲击下劳动者就业状态的动态变化问题。本文将研究视角聚焦于劳动者的岗位转换,采用微观个体层面数据考察机器人应用对就业的冲击,结合岗位任务属性和个体特性,剖析人工智能冲击引致的岗位转换方向和就业敏感性群体特征。结果表明:(1)机器人应用存在岗位转换效应,通过替代和创造效应增加劳动者岗位转换的可能性及转换频次,引致劳动者从繁重向非繁重、常规向非常规岗位转换。(2)机器人应用冲击下,低通用性和专用性技能、女性劳动群体岗位更换可能性更大,特别是对于已育女性群体而言,机器人应用会加剧“母职惩罚”。(3)在机器人应用过程中,劳动者技能与岗位匹配度越低如存在“技能剩余”时,岗位转换的可能性越大,且非正规就业群体相比于正规就业群体,岗位转换的频次更高。

At present,artificial intelligence is integrating with digital technologies such as the internet and big data,and is being fully embedded in various stages of production through intelligent machines like robots.This integration has farreaching implications for the labor market.Existing literature predominantly focuses on the impact of robots on employment status,namely,whether individuals are employed or unemployed while neglecting the dynamic transitions in employment status under the impact of robot applications.This paper shifts the perspective toward workers'job transitions and examines the effects of robot applications on both job transitions and their directions from a micro-level standpoint.By providing a fresh research perspective,this study not only contributes to the existing literature but also helps in comprehensively assessing the impact of robot applications on the labor market.It offers decision-making support to government agencies in effectively responding to robot-induced disruptions and proactively formulating policies to promote employment stability.This study utilizes data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)conducted between 2012 and 2018,as well as industry-level data on the stock of industrial robots provided by the International Federation of Robotics(IFR),to investigate the impact of robot applications on workers job transitions.Firstly,employing the Bartik instrument variable methodology,we construct a regional measure of robot penetration.The occurrence and frequency of job transitions among workers are used as the dependent variables to empirically examine the effect of robot applications on job transitions,with the use of U.S.robots as the instrumental variable for addressing the endogeneity.Secondly,the mechanism behind the job transition effects of robot applications is examined from the perspectives of job displacement and job creation effects.The direction of workers'job transitions is investigated based on the task attributes of the occupations under the impact of robot applications.Furthermore,the characteristics of sensitive groups in job transitions under robot-induced disruptions are identified from the angles of skill types,gender,and fertility status.Lastly,the roles played by job-skill matching and employment formalization in the job transition effects of robot applications,as well as the job transition characteristics of workers experiencing a"skill surplus"under robot-induced disruptions are analyzed.The study reveals that robot applications have a significant effect on job transitions,increasing the likelihood and frequency of workers'job transitions.On the one hand,robot applications lead to the displacement of workers from their current occupations,prompting job switching.Particularly,low-skilled workers experience frequent job transitions due to"skill depreciation"resulting from the impact of robot applications.On the other hand,robot applications also create new tasks and jobs,increasing the potential for job transitions among workers.Robot applications induce transitions for workers from strenuous to non-strenuous jobs,as well as from routine to non-routine jobs.When examining the characteristics of sensitive groups in job transitions,it is found that low-skilled workers and women face greater job transition risks.For women who are already mothers,robot applications exacerbate the"motherhood penalty".Furthermore,in the process of robot applications,the lower the job-skill matching for workers,such as the presence of"skill surpluses",the higher the likelihood of job transitions.Additionally,compared to formal employment groups,informal ones face higher risks of job transitions.This study makes several significant contributions.Firstly,it examines the dynamic impact of robot applications on employment from the perspective of job transitions,providing a new angle for studying the employment effects of robot applications.Secondly,it explores the direction of workers'job transitions under the impact of robots from the perspective of task attributes.Thirdly,it investigates the dfferential sensitivity of groups with different levels of general and specific skills,as well as women and women who are already mothers,under the impact of robot applications,and analyzes whether robot applications exacerbate the"motherhood penalty".Lastly,it examines the characteristics of job transitions under robot-induced disruptions from the perspectives of job-skill matching and informal employment,highlighting the importance of job-skill matching and the prevalence of job transitions among the informal employment groups.