中国-“海上丝路”沿线国家港口航运网络变化

Research on the Complexity of the Port Shipping Network between China and the Countries Along the "Maritime Silk Road"

“一带一路”倡议的提出对全球集装箱市场的演变格局具有重要影响,中国与沿线国家的港口航运网络是“海上丝路”繁荣发展的重要支撑。截取近20年的3个时间断面,运用复杂网络模型对与沿线国的航运网络结构进行刻画,分析其复杂性演变特征和空间格局。结果表明:(1)除1998年网络的无标度性质仍在发育外,其余年份该网络均已具有小世界及无标度特性,网络稠密程度增强了166%,而运行效率下降了28.72%。(2)中国对外航运联系具有明显的不均衡性,“马太效应”愈发明显。研究年份内航运联系重心呈现先西移后东迁的趋势,且航运要素集中分布在东亚及东南亚地区,港口间的相互协作程度增强。(3)该网络已发展成国内以上海-宁波、深圳-香港地区为核心的“四中心”枢纽港,国外以新加坡-巴生港、东京港口群及鹿特丹、汉堡港等为区域核心枢纽港的架构,进而向外辐射,而以青岛-大连-天津等为代表的区域性骨干港则是连接枢纽港和一般港口的重要桥梁。(4)总体而言,日韩、东盟及欧盟分别作为“海上丝路”和“冰上丝路”的起讫点形成了三足鼎立之势,支撑着网络要素的流动,而中东与非洲地区等作为中国的重要战略资源合作伙伴,与双方的全方位交流互鉴有利于中国港航经济的进一步繁荣发展。

The proposal of "the Belt and Road" initiative has an important impact on the evolution of the global container market.The port and shipping network between China and the countries along the route is an important support for the prosperity and development of the "Maritime Silk Road".The article intercepts three time sections in the past 20 years,uses a complex network model to describe the shipping network structure with the countries along the route,and analyzes its complexity evolution characteristics and spatial pattern.The results show that:(1)Except that the scale-free property of the network is still developing in 1998,the network has small-world and scale-free property in other years,and the dense layer of the network is enhanced by 166%,while the operating efficiency is decreased by 28.72%.(2)China's external shipping links are obviously unbalanced,and the "Matthew Effect" is becoming more and more obvious.During the study year,the center of gravity of shipping links moved from west to east.Shipping elements were concentrated in East and Southeast Asia.The degree of cooperation between ports was increased.(3)The network has developed into a four-center hub port with Shanghai-Ningbo,Shenzhen-Hong Kong as the core in China.Abroad,Singapore-Klang Port,Tokyo Port Group,Rotterdam Port and Hamburg Port are the core hub ports of the region,and then radiate outwards.The regional backbone port with Qingdao-Dalian-Tianjin as the representative is an important bridge connecting the hub port and general ports.(4)On the whole,Japan,South Korea,ASEAN and the EU,as the starting and ending points of the "Maritime Silk Road" and the "Icy Silk Road" respectively,have formed a tripartite trend to support the flow of network elements.Meanwhile the Middle East and Africa,as important strategic resource partners of China,exchange and mutual learning with both sides are conducive to the further prosperity and development of China's port and shipping economy.