新型农业经营主体发展阶段的时空演变及生存分析

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Survival Analysis of the Development Stages of New Agricultural Business Entities

在“新型农业经营主体提升行动”政策引导下,新型农业经营主体进入新发展阶段,日益成为农业、农村、农民经济增长的关键动能。论文基于2000—2022年中国新型农业经营主体数据,利用空间计量和生存分析,探究其生存时间阶段性变化及影响因素。研究发现:新型农业经营主体进入退出数量呈现倒“U”形曲线,实存数量呈逐渐上升的状态;阶段一成立的新型农业经营主体生存状况最好;个体特征和创新环境因素对新型农业经营主体生存时间均有正显著影响,阶段演变因素对其生存时间呈负显著影响;随着成立阶段的推移,新型农业经营主体资产规模和关联企业数量对其生存时间的保护作用逐渐下降,地理区域因素保护作用也逐渐减弱。研究可为新型农业经营主体生存提供实证分析,为农户成立新型农业经营主体提供有益案例。

Under the policy of“New Agricultural Business Entities Enhancement Action”,new agricultural business entities entered a new stage of development and increasingly becoming a key driving force for the economic growth of rural farmers in agriculture.Based on data of new agricultural business entities from 2000-2022,this paper used spatial measurement and survival analysis to explore the temporal changes in the survival as well as the influencing factors.The study found that:the numbers of new agricultural business entities entering and exiting showed an inverted“U”curve,and the numbers in existence were gradually increasing.The survival of new agricultural business entities established in stage 1 was the best.The individual characteristics and innovation environment factor had positive and significant impact on the survival time of new agricultural business entities.While stage evolution had negative and significant impact on the survival time.As the establishment stage progressed,the protective effect of new agricultural business entities assets size and the number of associated enterprises on the survival time gradually decreased,and the protective effect of geographical area factor also gradually diminished.The study could provide empirical analysis for the survival of new agricultural business entities and useful cases for farmers to set up new agricultural business entities.