亚太战略稳定与新时代中美关系

Asia-Pacific Strategic Stability and China-U.S.Relations in the New Era

亚太战略稳定与新时代中美关系紧密关联。作为地区战略稳定的三大核心要素,核稳定、大国关系稳定和制度框架稳定是地区战略稳定的基础、关键和重要保障。新时代以来,亚太战略稳定框架面临严重危机。美国谋求扩大对华核力量的绝对优势、亚太核战略互信不足和地区核谈判机制缺失侵蚀了亚太核稳定的基础。中美关系从接触走向全面战略竞争,其影响从双边延伸至多边和地区层面,导致中美关系稳定走向失衡,给亚太战略稳定带来消极影响。随着亚太制度框架的竞争性和对抗性增强,其对地区国家行为的约束力和保障地区战略稳定的作用不断弱化。为此,中国要通过完善亚太核稳定机制、努力保持中美关系的动态稳定和强化地区协调型制度框架稳定来重塑战略稳定框架。

The strategic stability of the Asia-Pacific region is closely related to the new era of China-U.S. relations. Nuclear stability, stability in major-country relations, and stability within the institutional framework constitute the three core elements that collectively determine the extent of regional strategic stability. Since we enter the new era, the Asia-Pacific strategic stability framework has encountered serious crises. The pursuit by the U.S. of absolute nuclear superiority over China, the absence of mutual trust in Asia-Pacific nuclear strategies, and the lack of a regional nuclear negotiation mechanism have all eroded the foundation of nuclear stability within this area. The characteristic of the China-U.S. relations had shifted from engagement to comprehensive strategic competition, with its impact extending from bilateral to multilateral and regional levels, which has led to China-U.S. imbalance and brought negative influence to Asia-Pacific strategic stability. With the increasing competitiveness and antagonism of the institutional framework in the Asia-Pacific region, its binding force on the behavior of regional countries and its role in ensuring regional strategic stability are constantly weakening. In light of this, China needs to reshape its strategic stability framework by improving the Asia-Pacific nuclear stability mechanism, striving to maintain the dynamic stability in China-U.S. relations, and strengthening the stability of the regional coordinated institutional framework.