预算管理与减税效能提升——来自小微企业动态群聚的证据

Budget Management and Increasing Tax Reduction Policy Effectivenes:Evidence from Dynamic Bunching of Micro and Small Enterprises

现代预算管理的要义在于通过预算约束,规范政府收支行为,提升政府治理效能。大规模减税降费政策推行以来,多次出现实际减税额超过预计减税额的现象。对此,本文采用群聚方法,研究门槛性减税政策引发企业动态群聚响应所导致的预算偏差问题,并提出了纳入群聚因素的预算精准化治理方案。本文发现:(1)减半征收政策实施过程中小微企业进行群聚响应,导致税基变化并产生预算偏差。(2)随着减半征收政策四次扩围,新门槛处的小微企业也呈现出群聚现象,而原减税门槛处的企业发生群聚反弹行为,导致税基再次变化。(3)综合考虑企业群聚响应和群聚反弹等因素对税基分布的影响,可以实现减税政策预算精准度达78%以上。本文还讨论了不同征收方式、行业类型、知悉程度、涉税服务等方面的企业群聚响应行为。最后,本文提出了优化减税政策预算管理是提升减税政策效能的重要路径。

Modern budget management primarily aims at controlling government revenue and expenditure through fiscal constraints,which ultimately enhances government effectiveness.A crucial component of this structure,the large-scale tax and fee reduction policies serve as a counter-cyclical adjustment tool and introduce considerable challenges to traditional budget management practices.Empirical data reveal that during the implementation of these policies,the actual tax reduction often surpasses the initial estimates.This discrepancy between the projected and realized figures can undermine the sustainability and precision of budget management,thereby impeding the accurate execution of tax reduction policies.Consequently,our research delves into this discrepancy,with a focus on taxpayers'behavioral responses to tax reduction thresholds.Using a dynamic bunching approach,we anticipate enterprises'behavioral adaptations following the implementation of tax reduction policies,with the ultimate goal of minimizing budget deviations and enhancing the precision of budget management in the context of tax reduction policies.This study draws on the administrative enterprise income tax records from the surveys of the State Taxation Administration of China(STAC),collected between 2008 and 2016.Our analysis reveals a substantial bunching phenomenon among micro and small enterprises(MSEs)following the implementation of a half-taxation policy.This notable bunching response is further explored using a theoretical model to shed light on the underlying motivations of such bunching of enterprises and their impacts on budgetary governance.The research proposes that both the initial bunching response and subsequent rebound significantly influence the tax reduction budget.We,by using the frequency distribution of enterprises unaffected by tax reduction policies,construct a counterfactual distribution and validate our hypotheses.Our findings show that the bunching mass significantly alters tax base distribution,and a stronger bunching response correlates with higher tax reduction thresholds,leading to larger budget deviations.Upon the expansion of the tax reduction policies,this paper observes that the initial bunching diminishes and shifts towards decreased taxable income or"missing mass",This shift further increases the tax base within the new cut range,providing insights into budget deviations.Investigation into the heterogeneity of bunching responses,considering different collection methods,industry types,tax policy knowledge levels,and tax-related services,underscores economic behaviors'complexity,requiring a subtle policy implementation approach.Our comprehensive policy recommendations aim to optimize budget management precision of tax reduction policies,enhancing policy effectiveness.Our theoretical and empirical contributions significantly advance the understanding of fiscal policies and budget management.This study offers several key contributions.Firstly,we integrate the bunching approach within the macro-fiscal governance framework,revealing budget deviations in tax reduction policies and providing empirical evidence to support their integration into a comprehensive budget management system.Secondly,we use the bunching approach to anticipate enterprise behavior,promoting a transition from ex-post to ex-ante evaluations of tax reduction policies and enriching exante research scenarios.Thirdly,we analyze taxpayers'behavioral responses to threshold-type tax cuts and the subsequent behavioral changes after policy implementation,providing first-time insights into the impact of such changes on the tax base following multiple policy expansions.It also applies the bunching approach for dynamic policy evaluations.Fourthly,we assess the implementation of tax reduction policies for MSEs,exploring the mechanisms underlying bunching responses,and thereby contributing to improving the effectiveness of tax reduction policies.