中国西南喀斯特地区农户的耕地种粮意愿影响因素研究——基于云南石林县384户农户调查问卷的实证

Study on the influencing factors of farmers′willingness to grow grain on cultivated land in karst areas of Southwest China——Based on the questionnaire of 384 farmers in Shilin County of Yunnan Province

加强西南喀斯特地区农户种粮意愿影响因素的研究,对保障区域粮食安全战略有着重大意义和紧迫性。选取云南省典型喀斯特地区———石林县为研究实例,运用回归模型分析方法,从农户个体特征、农户资源禀赋条件、耕地所处的自然条件、种粮生产因素及销售环境和惠农政策因素共5个方面选取19个变量对农户的耕地种粮意愿影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明:①耕地所处的自然条件对农户的耕地种粮意愿影响最为显著,农户资源禀赋条件因素次之,种粮生产因素及销售环境因素和惠农政策因素影响较小,农户个体特征影响最小。②在引入模型的19个变量中,务农人口占家庭人口比重、家庭人均纯收入、耕地分散情况等7个变量在1%水平上显著,家庭实际人口、务工收入占家庭总收入的比重、土壤肥沃程度和户主文化程度对农户种粮意愿的影响分别在5%、5%、5%、10%水平上显著,而户主年龄、户主性别、种粮收入占家庭总收入的比重等7个变量对农户的耕地种粮意愿没有产生显著的影响。③户主健康状况、家庭实际人口、粮食单产量情况3个变量对农户的耕地种粮意愿与预期相反。

It is of great significance and urgency to strengthen the research on the influencing factors of farmers′willingness to grow grain in karst areas of Southwest China.This paper selected Shilin County,a typical karst area in Yunnan Province,as the research example.This paper adopted the regression model analysis method,selected 19 variables from 5 aspects,namely,individual characteristics of farmers,resource endowment conditions of farmers,natural conditions of cultivated land,grain production factors and marketing environment,and favorable agricultural policies,to make an empirical study on the influencing factors of farmers′willingness to grow grain under cultivated land.The results showed that:①The natural conditions of cultivated land had the most significant impact on farmers′willingness to grow grain,followed by the resource endowment conditions of farmers,grain production factors,marketing environment factors and favorable agricultural policies,and the individual characteristics of farmers had the least impact.②Among the 19 variables introduced into the model,7 variables including the proportion of the farming population in the household population,the per capita net income of the household,the dispersion of cultivated land,were significont at the 1%level.The effects of actual household population,the proportion of migrant worker income in total household income,soil fertility and house hold head′s education on farmers′willingness to grow grain were significant at the levels of 5%,5%,5%and 10%,respectively.However,7 variables including the age of the household head,the gender of the household head,the proportion of grain income in the total household income,didn′t have the significant influence on the willingness of farmers to cultivate grain.③The health status of the household head,the actual population of the household and the grain yield per unit had opposite effects on the intention of farmers to plant grain in cultivated land.