俄罗斯青年政治社会偏好的想象与现实

The Perceptions and Realities of Political and Social Preferences among Russian Youth

在全球秩序动荡与俄罗斯国内政策环境持续调整的背景下,俄罗斯年轻人对社会及政治发展的看法值得关注。本文以代际划分的方式界定俄罗斯青年,采用全俄社会舆论研究中心自2018年7月以来在全俄范围内收集的连续58个月的民调数据,探究俄罗斯青年在政治社会偏好上的独特性。2020年以来,俄罗斯社会在联邦总统和外交政策评价上的代际差异趋于明显。相对其他世代而言,青年群体更多展现出在联邦事务和地方公共事务间的平衡,更信任司法系统而非宗教。总体而言,青年并非俄罗斯社会最具批判性的群体。当前俄罗斯社会最年轻的“稳定一代”在经济和社会事务上的态度,比年长的“改革一代”和“千禧一代”更加温和。俄罗斯民众的政治社会偏好更多取决于其经历的社会变动,而非所处的人生阶段。过去几代俄罗斯人对公共事务的基本看法在青年群体中得到延续。相较于对军队和行政部门的较高信任率,1993年宪法所确立的开放与竞争性政治制度及其关键参与主体至今未获得民众的普遍认可。

Against the backdrop of global geopolitical turbulence and continual adjustments in Russia’s domestic policies,the perspectives of Russian young individuals on social and political developments warrant attention.This article categorizes Russian youth by generations and employs data gathered by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center from 58 consecutive monthly polls conducted since July 2018 to examine the distinctive features of Russian youth concerning political and social preferences.The study reveals that generational disparities in the evaluation of the federal presidency and foreign policy in Russian society have become more pronounced since 2020.The youngest“stable generation”in present-day Russian society tends to exhibit a balanced approach to federal and local public affairs.In general,young Russian adults do not emerge as the most critically-minded group in Russian society.The“stable generation”maintains a more moderate stance toward economic and social affairs compared to the older“reform generation”and“millennials.”The political and social preferences of the Russian populace are more shaped by the societal changes they have undergone than by their life stage.The foundational perspectives on public affairs from previous generations of Russians persist within the youth demographic.