农业科技进步对农业碳排放空间溢出效应的实证检验

Empirical Test of Spatial Spillover Effect of Agricultural Scientific and Technological Progress on Agricultural Carbon Emissions

文章基于2003—2020年我国30个省份的面板数据,通过生产函数和因子测度公式测算了农业科技进步和农业碳排放强度,并借助空间杜宾模型检验了二者之间的内在影响关系,研究发现:农业科技进步对农业碳排放强度存在显著的“减碳效应”;农业科技进步与农业碳排放强度存在正向空间关联关系;本地区农业科技进步对相邻地区的农业碳排放强度存在显著的负向空间溢出效应,即存在“减碳效应”;农业科技进步对农业碳排放强度存在非线性影响,农业科技进步发挥了门槛效应,且整体呈现先增后减的“倒U”型特征。

Based on the panel data from 2003 to 2020,this paper calculates the development degree of agricultural science and technology progress and agricultural carbon emissions by means of production function and factor measurement formula,and then examines the internal influence of the two with the help of spatial measurement SDM model.The results go as below:Agricul-tural science and technology progress has a significant“carbon reduction effect”on agricultural carbon emissions.There is a posi-tive spatial correlation between the progress of agricultural science and technology and agricultural carbon emissions.The progress of agricultural science and technology in local areas has significant negative spatial spillover effect on adjacent agricultural carbon emissions,that is,a“carbon reduction effect”exists.The progress of agricultural science and technology has a nonlinear effect on agricultural carbon emissions.The progress of agricultural science and technology plays a threshold effect,and the overall feature of“inverted U”shape is increased first and then decreased.