预测信息分享对药品双渠道供应链集团采购策略的影响

The Effect of Forecast Information Sharing on the Group Purchasing Strategy in Pharmaceutical Dual-channel Supply Chain

针对由一个医药企业和一个GPO以及多个医疗机构构成的药品双渠道供应链。医疗机构可以直接从医药企业或集团采购组织购买药品,考虑线下医疗机构分享预测信息对医药企业和医疗机构的影响,分析信息分享的价值。研究发现:(1)在无信息分享下,当医药企业的网络运营成本适中时,若医疗机构的预测精度较低,则分散采购更有利于医药企业;若预测精度较高,则集团采购更有利于医药企业。对于医疗机构来说,则正好相反。(2)在信息分享下,当医药企业的网络直销成本适中时,若患者对网上渠道的接受度较高时,与无信息分享下的医药企业相同。对于医疗机构来说,当医药企业的网络运营成本较小时,若患者对网上渠道的接受度较低时,与无信息分享时相反。(3)信息分享补偿机制可以促使医疗机构主动分享信息。在信息分享补偿机制下,医疗机构分享信息时的采购策略正好与不分享信息时相反。

In recent years,the increasing penetration of social networks has changed the way people retrieve health information and seek medical treatment,and online medical services have improved the accessibility of quality medical resources.To effectively accelerate the development of“Internet Plus Medicine”,the reform of the health system needs to take the group procurement of medicines as an important element.Healthcare group purchasing organization(GPO)is considered to play an integral role in the healthcare supply chain by keeping prices low and helping all members of the healthcare system achieve their objectives.A two-channel pharmaceutical supply chain consisting of a pharmaceutical enterprise,a GPO and multiple medical institutions are investigated.The impact of whether medical institutions share forecast information with pharmaceutical enterprise on their purchasing decisions is considered,and finally the optimal purchasing strategies are discussed.The result shows that the prediction accuracy and network operation cost of pharmaceutical enterprise are the key factors influencing the procurement strategies.In the case of medical institutions without information sharing,if the prediction accuracy of medical institutions is too low,pharmaceutical enterprise tends to adopt the regarded as decentralized group procurement;If the prediction accuracy is high enough,pharmaceutical enterprise is inclined to adopt the group procurement.For medical institutions,the procurement strategies are opposite.In the case of medical institutions with information sharing,if patients'acceptance of online channel is large,it is the same as that of pharmaceutical enterprise without information sharing.For medi⁃cal institutions,when the network operation cost of medical enterprises and patients'acceptance of online chan⁃nel are small,which are contrary to the condition without information sharing.In summary,the effect of forecast information sharing on the group purchasing strategy in the pharmaceutical dual-channel supply chain is studied by employing the game theory.The findings can provide academic and practical insights for group purchasing under incomplete information.