美英澳伙伴关系与“印太”地区阵营化:基于小多边主义的考察

AUKUS and Camp Formation in the Indo-Pacific:From the Perspective of Minilateralism

作为美国推进“印太战略”的重要举措之一,美英澳伙伴关系不仅是一项核潜艇协议,也是拜登政府强化全球联盟的重要步骤,反映了美国试图以阵营化方式加强对华战略竞争的目的。既有研究更为强调美英澳伙伴关系对中国构成的体系压力,忽视了其内在的分歧和矛盾。基于对小多边主义特征的考察可以发现,无论是成员上的排他性、制度上的非正式性,还是功能上的议题导向性,都是一把“双刃剑”,在提高美英澳三国合作效率的同时也带来了内生的局限性,包括目标困境、承诺难题以及牵连风险。由此可见,美国的联盟内部并非铁板一块,而是存在着重重危机和矛盾。尽管拜登政府试图通过美英澳伙伴关系来重振美国的全球联盟体系,但是美澳之间围绕成本分摊、风险分担与利益分歧的争议已然开始显现。美国全球联盟转型的根本问题在于,在加强对华战略竞争的同时,既希望确保自身的经济利益和霸权利益,又希望让盟国来为冲突与风险买单,长此以往必然会引发盟国的质疑和不满,美国推动“印太”地区阵营化的目标也将面临挑战。鉴于此,中国可以综合使用强制、劝诱和说服三种策略,推动美澳同盟的分化,尽可能确保澳大利亚在中美战略竞争中保持中立、平衡或采取不过分支持美国的态度。

As one of the key initiatives driving the"Indo-Pacific strategy"taken by the United States,the Australia-UK-US partnership is not just a nuclear submarine agreement;it is also a significant step taken by the Biden administration to strengthen global alliances,reflecting America's attempt to enhance its strategic competition with China through a coalition-building approach.Some research places a stronger emphasis on the systemic pressure that AUKUS has put on China while overlooking its inherent differences and contradictions.Based on the examination of the characteristics of minilateralism reveals that whether in terms of exclusivity,informality,or issue-driven nature,minilateralism is a double-edged sword.While it enhances the efficiency of cooperation among the three countries,it also brings about intrinsic limitations,including goal dilemmas,commitment issues,and entanglement risks.Hence,it is evident that the U.S.alliance system is not a monolithic entity but rather fraught with crises and contradictions.Although the Biden administration seeks to revialize America's global alliance system through AUKUS,disputes between the U.S.and Australia over cost-sharing,risk-sharing,and conflicting interests are already emerging.The fundamental ssue of U.S.'s global alliance system lies in the fact that,while seeking to strengthen its strategic competition with China,the U.S.wants to ensure both its economic and hegemonic interests while having allied nations pay the bill for conflicts and risks.This approach is likely to lead to questioning and dissatisfaction among the allies,and U.S.'s goal of pushing forrival camps in the Indo-Pacific will face challenges.Given this,China can employ a comprehensive strategy,including coercion,inducement,and persuasion,to promote the division of the U.S.-Australia alliance,and ensure that Australia maintains a neutral,balanced,or not overly supportive stance toward the United States inthecontext of U.S.-China strategic competition.