数字技术使用降低了农户返贫风险吗?——基于社会资本的中介作用

Does Digital Technology Use Reduce Farmers'Risk of Returning to Poverty?——Mediation Based on Social Capital

在全面推进乡村振兴战略背景下,研究数字技术使用如何降低农户返贫风险和巩固脱贫攻坚成果具有重要的现实意义。文章基于2019年和2021年中国社会状况综合调查数据,采用工具变量-概率单位模型和中介效应模型,在识别出农户返贫风险的基础上,探究数字技术使用对农户返贫风险的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)数字技术使用对农户返贫风险具有显著负向影响,影响效应分别为-0.99和-1.25,稳健性检验和内生性检验结果均验证了这一结论。(2)进一步的机制检验发现,数字技术使用通过增加农户社会资本,降低其返贫风险,在1.90美元和3.10美元贫困线下,其中介效应为16.36%和20.45%,表明社会资本在数字技术使用降低农户返贫风险中具有部分中介作用。(3)异质性分析发现,数字技术使用对农户返贫风险的影响在户主年龄、户主性别和地区分布上具有异质性;对于非老年、男性及东部地区农户而言,数字技术使用对其返贫风险的负向作用更明显。基于信息贫困理论,文章构建了“数字技术使用-社会资本-农户返贫风险”的分析框架,并采用基于预期的返贫风险法测度农户返贫风险,丰富了数字技术减贫的作用机理,为降低农户返贫风险和巩固脱贫攻坚成果提供了新路径。文章建议,应健全数字技术防治返贫风险的体制机制,加强农户社会资本培育,优化数字技术资源配置,提升“数字红利”的共享性和公平性,巩固脱贫攻坚成果。

Under the background of advancing rural revitalization strategy,it is of great practical significance to explore how to reduce the risk of farmers'returning to poverty and consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation.Based on the Chinese social survey data in 2019 and 2021,this paper adopted the instrumental variables-Probit model and the intermediary effects model,and on the basis of identifying farmers'risk of returning to poverty,explored the impact of the use of digital technology on farmers'risk of returning to poverty and its mechanism.The results showed that:(1)The use of digital technology had a significant negative impact on farmers'risk of returning to poverty,and the impact effects were-0.99 and-1.25,respectively.The results of robustness test and endogeneity test verified this conclusion.(2)Further mechanism test found that the use of digital technology reduced farmers'risk of returning to poverty by increasing their social capital,and the mediating effects were 16.36%and 20.45%below the poverty line of $1.90 and $3.10,indicating that social capital played a partial mediating role in the use of digital technology to reduce farmers'risk of returning to poverty.(3)Heterogeneity analysis found that the impact of digital technology use on farmers'risk of returning to poverty was heterogeneous in age,gender and regional distribution.For non-elderly,male and eastern farmers,the negative effect of digital technology use on their risk of returning to poverty was more obvious.Based on the theory of information poverty,this paper constructed an analytical framework of digital technology use-social capital-farmers'risk of returning to poverty,and adopted the expectation-based risk of returning to poverty method to measure farmers'risk of returning to poverty,enriching the mechanism of poverty reduction through digital technology,and providing a new path for reducing farmers'risk of returning to poverty and consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation.This paper suggested to improve the system and mechanism through digital technology to prevent the risk of returning to poverty,strengthen the cultivation of rural households'social capital,optimize the allocation of digital technology resources,enhance the sharing and fairness of the"digital dividend,and consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation.