北极气候与环境变化对第三产业影响的研究进展及展望

Progress and prospects of the research on the impact of Arctic climate and environmental changes on the tertiary sector

北极日益加剧的气候与环境变化对当地社会经济造成了系列影响。从第三产业视角认识北极变化的影响,能为北极/全球的可持续发展和域外国家参与北极事务提供参考。论文通过文献综述,系统梳理了北极变化对第三产业典型行业的影响途径与效果。结果发现,以气温升高、降水增加、冰层消融、冻土退化为代表的各北极变化均以多种途径广泛影响着第三产业,并对大部分行业要素产生了利害并存的影响。这些影响为相关研究和中国提供了多项启示。未来研究需要:(1)填补影响途径的认知冷点,综合北极变化的致利与致害效应;(2)探究北极变化的间接和级联影响;(3)融合多源数据。中国可以通过提高对北极规则制定的参与度,改善“冰上丝绸之路”的运输设施和运输保障,丰富北极旅游产品并创造贸易增长条件,进而把握北极第三产业变化的机遇。

The escalating climate and environmental changes in the Arctic have a series of impacts on the local society and economy.Understanding these impacts from the perspective of the tertiary sector can provide references for the sustainable development of the Arctic and globally,as well as for the participation of non-Arctic countries in Arctic affairs.This study systematically reviewed the literature to identify the pathways and effects of Arctic changes on typical industries within the tertiary sector.The results show that various Arctic changes,such as rising temperatures,increasing precipitation,ice melting,and permafrost degradation,have widely influenced the tertiary sector through multiple pathways,presenting both benefits and challenges for most elements of the industries.These impacts offer several insights for relevant studies and for China.Further research is needed to:1)address the knowledge gaps regarding the pathways of impacts and comprehensively integrate the beneficial and harmful effects of Arctic changes;2)explore the indirect and cascading impacts of Arctic changes;and 3)integrate multi-source data for research.China can take advantage of the opportunities presented by the changes in the Arctic tertiary sector by:1)increasing its participation in Arctic rule-making;2)improving transportation infrastructure and security of the"Polar Silk Road";and 3)diversifying Arctic tourism products and creating conditions for trade growth.