农地流转对农业碳排放强度影响的空间效应及作用机制

The spatial effect and action mechanism of the influence of rural land transfer on agricultural carbon emission intensity

农地流转对农业碳排放强度影响分析有利于推进农地流转过程中碳减排工作深入开展,但现有研究较少分析其空间效应及空间作用机制,更未识别地区异质性.参考现有成果,在理论分析后,基于2005~2021年中国内地30省份面板数据,利用面板回归模型检验农地流转对农业碳排放强度影响,结合空间计量模型分析农地流转对农业碳排放强度影响的空间效应及其空间作用机制,并讨论其空间效应的地区异质性.结果表明:研究期内,农地流转通过多种机制对农业碳排放强度产生显著负向空间效应,农地流转既能降低本地区农业碳排放强度,也能降低周边地区农业碳排放强度;技术发展机制、示范效应机制、地区竞争机制是农地流转对农业碳排放强度产生负向空间效应的关键作用机制;农地流转对农业碳排放强度影响的空间效应存在地区异质性,南方地区农地流转对农业碳排放强度影响的负向空间效应比北方地区程度更深.为此,建议加快推进农地流转,多途径发挥农地流转的空间减排效应.

Agricultural carbon emission intensity has important practical value considering agricultural production level and agricultural green development.Analysis of the impact of rural land transfer on agricultural carbon emission intensity has scientific value for promoting carbon emission reduction in the process of rural land transfer promotion,but few existing studies have analyzed its spatial effects.After theoretical analysis,based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China’s mainland from 2005 to 2021,the panel regression model was used to analyze the impact of rural land transfer on agricultural carbon emission intensity.The spatial effects of rural land transfer on agricultural carbon emission intensity were discussed by combining the spatial econometric model.The results showed that during the study period,rural land transfer a significant negative spatial effect on agricultural carbon intensity.Rural land transfer can not only reduce the agricultural carbon intensity in the local area,but also reduce the agricultural carbon intensity in the surrounding area,and its spatial spillover effect is more obvious;Technology development mechanism,demonstration effect mechanism and regional competition mechanism are the key mechanisms of the negative spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity.The spatial effect of rural land transfer on agricultural carbon emission intensity has regional heterogeneity,and the spatial carbon emission reduction effect of rural land transfer in southern China is deeper than that in northern China.Therefore,it is suggested to speed up rural land transfer and give full play to the spatial emission reduction effect of rural land transfer in various ways.