江苏省大气PM_(2.5)对人群神经系统疾病死亡的急性效应研究

Acute effect of atmospheric PM_(2.5)on death due to nervous system disease in Jiangsu Province,China

目的估计江苏省大气PM_(2.5)短期暴露对人群神经系统疾病死亡的急性效应。方法数据使用江苏省13个设区市2016—2021年的环境监测、气象监测和居民死亡监测的资料。采用广义相加模型分析大气PM_(2.5)日均质量浓度和神经系统疾病死亡的关联。使用多元Meta分析随机效应模型合并多个城市PM_(2.5)与死亡风险的效应值。结果2016—2021年江苏省大气PM_(2.5)的日均质量浓度M(P_(25),P_(75))为43.1(2.0,333.6)μg/m^(3),神经系统疾病日均死亡人数M(P_(25),P_(75))为32(11,75)例。单污染物模型显示,lag07 d时PM_(2.5)对人群神经系统疾病日死亡的影响最大,PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),全人群神经系统疾病日死亡数增加1.26%(95%CI:0.57%,1.95%)。双污染物模型中,效应值仍然具有统计学意义。女性和65岁及以上老年人群对PM_(2.5)导致的神经系统疾病急性死亡较为敏感。PM_(2.5)与神经系统疾病死亡的暴露反应关系曲线表现为非线性无阈值。结论大气PM_(2.5)的短期暴露可增加人群每日神经系统疾病的死亡,PM_(2.5)对急性死亡的潜在威胁不容忽视。

Objective To estimate the acute effect of short-term exposure to atmospheric fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))on death due to nervous system disease in Jiangsu Province of China.Methods Data were collected from environmental monitoring,meteorological monitoring,and resident death surveillance in 13 municipalities of Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2021.A generalized additive model was performed to evaluate the association between daily PM_(2.5)mass concentration and death due to nervous system disease,and a meta-analysis with a multivariate random effects model was performed to merge the effective values of PM_(2.5)and risk of death in multiple cities.Results In Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2021,the daily mean mass concentration of PM_(2.5)[M(P_(25),P_(75))]was 43.1(2.0,333.6)μg/m^(3),and the average daily number of deaths due to nervous system disease[M(P_(25),P_(75))]was 32(11,75).The single-pollutant model showed that PM_(2.5)at lag07 day had the greatest impact on daily deaths due to nervous system disease,and for every 10μg/m^(3)increase in PM_(2.5)concentration,the daily number of deaths due to nervous system disease was increased by 1.26%(95%CI:0.57%,1.95%).The effective value was still statistically significant in the double-pollutant model.Female and the elderly aged≥65 years were more sensitive to acute death due to nervous system disease caused by PM_(2.5).The exposure-response relationship between PM_(2.5)and death due to nervous system disease was non-linear without threshold.Conclusion Short-term exposure to PM_(2.5)can result in an increase in daily deaths due to nervous system disease,and therefore,the potential threat of PM_(2.5)on acute death should not be neglected.