跨境贸易冲击对居民福利分化的影响及应对——以明清美洲白银流入为例

The Impact of Cross-Border Trade Shock on Residents'Welfare Division and Countermeasures:Evidence from American Silver Inflow in Ming and Qing Dynasties

本文以明清时期美洲白银通过贸易渠道大量流入,造成贫富差距扩大为背景,构建两代理人新凯恩斯(TANK)一般均衡模型,研究了跨境贸易冲击对不同家庭产生的异质性影响。理论模型分析的结果显示,跨境贸易冲击会改变国内消费品和国外消费品的生产比例,导致富裕家庭和贫困家庭的收入和生活成本发生不对称变化,进一步扩大福利差距。采用不同的财政政策应对,其机制和效果各不相同。财政支出盯住通胀、转移支付、国内消费品价格补贴、投资品价格补贴,分别通过抑制通胀、补贴贫困家庭、促进消费、刺激投资等不同渠道抑制贫富分化。随着百年未有之大变局的不断演进,我国将面临更加不确定的外部环境,遭遇更加复杂的贸易冲击,这将对居民收入分配格局造成影响。对此,政府需要充分利用好各种政策工具,在扩大开放的同时防止贫富差距拉大,为实现共同富裕打下坚实基础。

Since the Western Han Dynasty,ancient China had established economic and trade relations with Europe through the ancient Silk Road.During the Ming and Qing dynasties,although foreign trade was subject to regulation sometimes,its scale had significantly increased,large amount of silver flowed into China as its export expanded,and silver became the main currency in circulation.As international trade grew and more silver flowed in,the gap in the quality of life between different classes was widening.From the supply side's perspective,an increase in foreign demand wll push up the prices of export goods.As a result,more resources will be allocated to the production of foreign consumer goods,forming a squeeze on the production of domestic consumer goods.On the demand side,as the supply of circulating money increases significantly,the total demand of society will increase,leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of money.Under the joint effects of these two factors,the common people were subjected to further exploitation,in addition to the landlords and feudal aristocracy,widening the wealth gap between different classes.This laid the foundation for the frequent peasant uprisings and increased social instability in the late Ming and Qing dynasties.Against this background,this paper constructs a two-agent New Keynesian(TANK)general equilibrium model to study the heterogeneous impact of cross-border trade shocks on different households.The results of theoretical model analysis show that cross-border trade shocks can change the production ratio of domestic and foreign consumer goods,leading to asymmetric changes in the income and cost of living for wealthy and poor households,further widening the welfare gap.Different fiscal policies adopted in response vary in mechanism and effect.Fiscal expenditure focuses on prices,transfer payments,subsidies for domestic consumer goods,and subsidies for investment goods,respectively,through different channels such as suppressing inflation,subsidizing impoverished households,boosting consumption,and stimulating investment to suppress wealth differentiation.Based on the above analysis,the government needs to make full use of various policy tools to prevent the wealth gap from widening while expanding openness.Firstly,it is necessary to take the systematic approach,pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation and changes in the industrial structure,and prevent the imbalanced development of trade from causing export related industries to absorb too many resources,which will have adverse effects on macroeconomic stability and the income distribution structure.The government should also ensure balanced and stable income growth for all residents,and steadily improve residents'consumption capacity,in order to lay a solid foundation for building a double development dynamic.Secondly,attention should be paid to the impact of fiscal policies on prices,and inflation factors should be appropriately considered in expenditure targets to prevent excessive fiscal stimulus from driving up inflation and causing adverse effects on the life quality of low-income people.Thirdly,the government should collect data about RMB internationalization,especially about offshore RMB assets and country data,to have a clear understanding,coordinate efforts to promote development and enhance security,prevent related risks caused by rapid growth,and orderly promote RMB internationalization.