基于灰色模型的建筑碳排放预测

Prediction of Building Carbon Emissions Based on Grey Model

在全球气候不断变暖的形势下,我国2020年提出“碳中和,碳达峰”的战略目标以应对气候变化。建筑业作为排碳大户,推动节能环保、减碳绿色对快速实现双碳目标至关重要。本文章主要研究双碳背景下建筑全生命周期的碳排放影响因素,并通过GM(1,1)方法对中国建筑生命周期中的建材生产阶段碳排放进行预测,做出结论并提出对策,从而促进我国“双碳”目标发展。

In the context of continuous global warming,China proposed the strategic goal of"carbon neutrality and carbon peak"in 2020 to address climate change.As a major carbon emitter,promoting energy conservation,environmental protection,carbon reduction,and green development in the construction industry is crucial for achieving the dual carbon goals quickly.This article mainly studies the influencing factors of carbon emissions throughout the entire life cycle of buildings under the background of dual carbon,and predicts the carbon emissions during the production stage of building materials in China's building life cycle using the GM(1,1)method,draws conclusions,and proposes countermeasures to promote the development of China's"dual carbon"goals.