新疆畜牧业碳排放强度动态演变与驱动力分析

Dynamic evolution and driving force analysis of carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry in Xinjiang

基于联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)推荐的系数法、空间自相关分析和固定效应模型等方法,揭示2001—2020年新疆14个地(州、市)畜牧业碳排放量、碳排放强度的空间演变规律及驱动因素。结果表明:就新疆整体而言,2001—2020年畜牧业碳排放量大体呈波动变化趋势;畜牧业碳排放强度大体呈下降趋势;就地(州、市)而言,2001—2020年各地(州、市)畜牧业碳排放量在空间上的分布表现为北疆>南疆>东疆,而南疆克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州的畜牧业碳排放强度最高,说明其生产效率最低;从空间聚集的角度来看,各地(州、市)畜牧业碳排放强度具有明显的空间集聚性和空间正相关性;另外,城镇化水平和工业化水平提升对各地(州、市)畜牧业碳排放强度降低具有显著的阻碍作用,经济发展水平、畜牧业发展水平和农业机械化水平提升对各地(州、市)畜牧业碳排放强度降低具有显著的推动作用。

Based on the IPCC recommended coefficient method,spatial autocorrelation analysis and fixed-effect model,the carbon emission amount,intensity as well as their spatial evolution pattern and driving factors of animal husbandry in 14 regions(prefectures,cities)of Xinjiang from 2001 to 2020 were revealed.The results showed that as a whole,the carbon emission amount of animal husbandry in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2020 showed a fluctuating trend,the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry showed a gradual downward trend.In terms of various regions(prefectures,cities),the spatial distribution of carbon emission amount of animal husbandry in 14 regions(prefectures,cities)from 2001 to 2020 was as follows:North Xinjiang>South Xinjiang>East Xinjiang,while Kezhou in South Xinjiang had the highest carbon emission intensity,indicating its lowest production efficiency.From the perspective of spatial agglomeration,the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry in 14 regions(prefectures,cities)of Xinjiang had obvious spatial agglomeration and positive spatial correlation.In addition,the improvement of urbanization and industrialization level had a significant hindering effect on the reduction of carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry in various regions(prefectures,cities)of Xinjiang.The improvement of economic development level,animal husbandry development level,and agricultural mechanization level had a significant promoting effect on the reduction of carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry in various regions(prefectures,cities)of Xinjiang.